Maidenhead Vs King’s Lynn

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Maidenhead and King’s Lynn for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.15 3.58 3.06 1.69 2.12
Estim 2.42 3.79 3.11 2.03 1.97
Value % -5.19 -1.55 -0.53 -9.91 3.59



Basic Data and latest results


Maidenhead basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 4 5 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 0 3
At Home 1 1 2 33 3 3 1 3




Maidenhead latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Grimsby H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Notts County A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Stockport H 0 2 L U Ng
04 Sep Torquay H 3 4 L O Gg
30 Aug Weymouth A 1 3 L O Gg
28 Aug Dover Athletic H 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Halifax A 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



King’s Lynn basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 4 6 4 2
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 3 3 3 0




King’s Lynn latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Altrincham A 1 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Wealdstone H 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Dag and Red H 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Eastleigh A 3 3 D O Gg
30 Aug Chesterfield H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Yeovil A 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Southend H 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Maidenhead is -0.533 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.57.
  • The home dynamic for the Maidenhead is -0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the King’s Lynn is -0.056.
  • The offensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.005 and for the King’s Lynn is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.682 and for the King’s Lynn is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Maidenhead 27% 30% 24% 19%
King’s Lynn 30% 35% 22% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.57 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Maidenhead to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.34 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.2 0-1 3.72
1 5.35 2-3 2.09
2 4.2 4+ 4
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.41 Un 1.5 3.72
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2.04
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.97
Gg 1.97 Ov 3.5 4
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.99 3.28 2.77
2-3 goals 2.23 4.56 3.01
4+ goals 2.34 3.25 3.79
Ov 1.5 2.26 4.01 3.24
Un 1.5 2.99 3.28 2.77
Ov 2.5 1.97 6.38 2.98
Un 2.5 3.11 2.71 3.23
Ov 3.5 2.34 3.25 3.79
Un 3.5 2.45 4 2.92
Goal-Goal 2.63 2.79 3.84
No Goal 2.24 5.99 2.58
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.08 5.22 3.05
NG+Un 2.5 2.47 5.99 2.56



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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