Mainz Vs Union Berlin

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Mainz and Union Berlin for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.11 3.35 3.69 2.1 1.79
Estim 1.82 3.92 5.1 1.72 2.39
Value % 7.55 -4.34 -7.49 10.52 -14.02



Basic Data and latest results


Mainz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 3 2 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 1 0 3
At Home 2 1 0 78 2 0 1 2




Mainz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Leverkusen A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Freiburg H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Hoffenheim A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Greuther Furth H 3 0 W O Ng
21 Aug Bochum A 0 2 L U Ng
15 Aug RB Leipzig H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Union Berlin basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Away 0 1 1 17 2 2 2 0




Union Berlin latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Bielefeld H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Dortmund A 2 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Augsburg H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug M’gladbach H 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Hoffenheim A 2 2 D O Gg
14 Aug Leverkusen H 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Mainz is 0.126 and for the Union Berlin is 0.17.
  • The home dynamic for the Mainz is 0.584 and the dynamic as a guest for the Union Berlin is -0.48.
  • The offensive ability for the Mainz is -0.482 and for the Union Berlin is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Mainz is 0.519 and for the Union Berlin is -0.142.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Mainz 13% 27% 42% 18%
Union Berlin 23% 53% 17% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.42 goals and Union Berlin to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Mainz to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.66 goals and Union Berlin to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Mainz to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 33.33 0-1 6.25
1 7.69 2-3 1.73
2 3.85 4+ 3.8
3 3.13 Ov 1.5 1.19
4 5.35 Un 1.5 6.25
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 1.72
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 2.38
Gg 1.49 Ov 3.5 3.8
NoG 3.02 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.58 5.33 2.35
2-3 goals 1.6 4.11 7.52
4+ goals 2.07 3.09 5.16
Ov 1.5 1.73 3.73 6.58
Un 1.5 2.58 5.33 2.35
Ov 2.5 1.49 6.85 5.49
Un 2.5 2.64 2.46 4.67
Ov 3.5 2.07 3.09 5.16
Un 3.5 1.75 4.32 5.1
Goal-Goal 1.92 2.97 6.99
No Goal 1.65 11.03 3.31
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.52 6.24 5.52
NG+Un 2.5 1.75 11.03 3.1



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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