Malaga Vs Fuenlabrada

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Malaga and Fuenlabrada for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.45 2.96 3.22 2.61 1.51
Estim 2.36 3.53 3.41 2.42 1.71
Value % 1.56 -5.46 -1.73 3.01 -7.75



Basic Data and latest results


Malaga basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 2 1
At Home 2 1 0 78 2 0 0 3




Malaga latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Sp Gijon A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Ponferradina A 0 4 L O Ng
12 Sep Girona H 2 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Almeria A 0 2 L U Ng
27 Aug Alcorcon H 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Ibiza A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Aug Mirandes H 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Fuenlabrada basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 4 0 56 4 3 1 5
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 0 56 1 0 0 3




Fuenlabrada latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Cartagena H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Huesca A 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Lugo H 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Sociedad B A 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Alcorcon A 2 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Tenerife H 1 2 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Malaga is -0.222 and for the Fuenlabrada is 0.333.
  • The home dynamic for the Malaga is 0.631 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fuenlabrada is 0.296.
  • The offensive ability for the Malaga is 0.036 and for the Fuenlabrada is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Malaga is -0.253 and for the Fuenlabrada is 0.09.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Malaga 27% 35% 24% 13%
Fuenlabrada 35% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.11 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.24 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.14
1 4.48 2-3 2.02
2 3.73 4+ 5.41
3 4.39 Ov 1.5 1.47
4 7.87 Un 1.5 3.14
5 21.28 Ov 2.5 2.42
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.71
Gg 2.11 Ov 3.5 5.41
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.56 3.35 3.21
2-3 goals 2.22 3.82 3.47
4+ goals 2.47 3.14 3.63
Ov 1.5 2.29 3.6 3.51
Un 1.5 2.56 3.35 3.21
Ov 2.5 1.95 7 2.91
Un 2.5 2.79 2.6 3.88
Ov 3.5 2.47 3.14 3.63
Un 3.5 2.35 3.62 3.36
Goal-Goal 2.87 2.5 3.97
No Goal 2.05 5.54 3.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.08 5.81 2.88
NG+Un 2.5 2.17 5.54 3.02



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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