Man United Vs Everton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Man United and Everton for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.5 4.36 7.14 1.83 2.05
Estim 2.08 4.08 3.65 1.82 2.21
Value % -18.59 1.57 13.39 0.3 -3.53



Basic Data and latest results


Man United basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 5 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1




Man United latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Aston Villa H 0 1 L U Ng
19 Sep West Ham A 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Newcastle H 4 1 W O Gg
29 Aug Wolves A 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Southampton A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Leeds H 5 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Everton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1




Everton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Norwich H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Aston Villa A 0 3 L O Ng
13 Sep Burnley H 3 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Brighton A 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Leeds A 2 2 D O Gg
14 Aug Southampton H 3 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Man United (4-2-3-1) Everton (4-4-1-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
David de Gea GK Jordan Pickford GK
Luke Shaw DL Lucas Digne DL
Rapha?l Varane DC Michael Keane DC
Victor Lindel?f DC Yerry Mina DC
Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR Ben Godfrey DR
Fred DMC Alex Iwobi ML
Nemanja Matic DMC Allan MC
Paul Pogba AML Abdoulaye Doucour? MC
Jesse Lingard AMC Andros Townsend MR
Mason Greenwood AMR Demarai Gray AMC
Edinson Cavani FW Salom?n Rond?n FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Man United news and injuries


Aaron Wan-Bissaka returns from suspension for Manchester United but Harry Maguire is still unavailable due to injury. . Particularly the latter after his match winning goal in midweek.
However, it remains to be seen whether he will actually bench the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Marcus Rashford and Amad Diallo will not return until after the international break. The fact Luke Shaw has been included in England’s latest squad suggests he has a decent chance of returning here. Given the sharp turnaround between matches, Solskjaer should really flex his squad here with starts for Jesse Lingard, Nemanja Matic and Edinson Cavani.
Diogo Dalot and Alex Telles are on standby.


Injured player Status
Marcus Rashford Out
Amad Diallo Out
Harry Maguire Out
Luke Shaw Doubtful



Everton news and injuries


. However, Rafa Benitez is still without Seamus Coleman, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin until after the international break.
Central midfielders Andre Gomes and Jean-Philippe Gbamin are both doubts, though neither were expected to start. Jordan Pickford and Lucas Digne recovered from injury to start Everton’s 2-0 win over Norwich last weekend, though the former is back to being a doubt.
Mason Holgate is an option for Everton’s defence and Benitez could also revert to a back three at Old Trafford. With injuries weighing heavy on Everton’s squad, Benitez is expected to name the same side from last weekend.


Injured player Status
S?amus Coleman Out
Richarlison Out
Fabian Delph Out
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Out
Gylfi Sigurdsson Out
Jordan Pickford Doubtful
Andr? Gomes Doubtful
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Man Utd are undefeated in their last 9 home matches against Everton in all competitions.
  • Man Utd have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches against Everton in all competitions.
  • Everton have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Man United is 0.459 and for the Everton is 0.481.
  • The home dynamic for the Man United is 0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Everton is -0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Man United is 0.451 and for the Everton is 0.474.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Man United is -0.631 and for the Everton is -0.167.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Man United 24% 22% 30% 24%
Everton 32% 35% 20% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 2 goals and Everton to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 1.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.54 goals and Everton to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.99 0-1 4.31
1 6.45 2-3 2.09
2 4.5 4+ 3.46
3 3.89 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 5.81 Un 1.5 4.31
5 11.63 Ov 2.5 1.83
6+ 32.26 Un 2.5 2.2
Gg 1.94 Ov 3.5 3.46
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.41


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.31 3.01 2.73
2-3 goals 1.71 6.22 3.93
4+ goals 2.21 3.18 4.31
Ov 1.5 1.87 4.57 4.06
Un 1.5 3.31 3.01 2.73
Ov 2.5 1.74 6 3.87
Un 2.5 2.72 2.95 3.41
Ov 3.5 2.21 3.18 4.31
Un 3.5 2.03 4.62 3.43
Goal-Goal 2.17 3.07 4.69
No Goal 1.99 6.29 2.95
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.84 4.82 3.99
NG+Un 2.5 2.26 6.29 2.83



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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