In this article I will analyze the game between Man United and Everton for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Man United basic data
Man United latest results
|25 Sep||Aston Villa||H||0||1||L||U||Ng|
|19 Sep||West Ham||A||2||1||W||O||Gg|
Everton basic data
Everton latest results
|18 Sep||Aston Villa||A||0||3||L||O||Ng|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Man United (4-2-3-1)||Everton (4-4-1-1)|
|David de Gea||GK||Jordan Pickford||GK|
|Luke Shaw||DL||Lucas Digne||DL|
|Rapha?l Varane||DC||Michael Keane||DC|
|Victor Lindel?f||DC||Yerry Mina||DC|
|Aaron Wan-Bissaka||DR||Ben Godfrey||DR|
|Paul Pogba||AML||Abdoulaye Doucour?||MC|
|Jesse Lingard||AMC||Andros Townsend||MR|
|Mason Greenwood||AMR||Demarai Gray||AMC|
|Edinson Cavani||FW||Salom?n Rond?n||FW|
Man United news and injuries
Aaron Wan-Bissaka returns from suspension for Manchester United but Harry Maguire is still unavailable due to injury. . Particularly the latter after his match winning goal in midweek.
However, it remains to be seen whether he will actually bench the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Marcus Rashford and Amad Diallo will not return until after the international break. The fact Luke Shaw has been included in England’s latest squad suggests he has a decent chance of returning here. Given the sharp turnaround between matches, Solskjaer should really flex his squad here with starts for Jesse Lingard, Nemanja Matic and Edinson Cavani.
Diogo Dalot and Alex Telles are on standby.
Everton news and injuries
. However, Rafa Benitez is still without Seamus Coleman, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin until after the international break.
Central midfielders Andre Gomes and Jean-Philippe Gbamin are both doubts, though neither were expected to start. Jordan Pickford and Lucas Digne recovered from injury to start Everton’s 2-0 win over Norwich last weekend, though the former is back to being a doubt.
Mason Holgate is an option for Everton’s defence and Benitez could also revert to a back three at Old Trafford. With injuries weighing heavy on Everton’s squad, Benitez is expected to name the same side from last weekend.
Betting information and prediction
- Man Utd are undefeated in their last 9 home matches against Everton in all competitions.
- Man Utd have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches against Everton in all competitions.
- Everton have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Man United is 0.459 and for the Everton is 0.481.
- The home dynamic for the Man United is 0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Everton is -0.024.
- The offensive ability for the Man United is 0.451 and for the Everton is 0.474.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Man United is -0.631 and for the Everton is -0.167.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 2 goals and Everton to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 1.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.54 goals and Everton to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|