Maritimo Vs Moreirense

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Maritimo and Moreirense for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.4 3.13 3.01 2.3 1.63
Estim 2.06 3.75 4.03 2.09 1.92
Value % 6.88 -5.28 -8.41 4.37 -9.27



Basic Data and latest results


Maritimo basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 1 2
At Home 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2




Maritimo latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Sep Sp Lisbon A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Famalicao A 0 0 D U Ng
13 Sep Arouca H 2 2 D O Gg
27 Aug Estoril A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Aug Porto H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Aug Belenenses A 2 1 W O Gg
07 Aug Sp Braga H 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Moreirense basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 6 5 1
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 3 0
At Away 0 2 1 22 2 3 2 1




Moreirense latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Arouca H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Porto A 0 5 L O Ng
12 Sep Famalicao H 2 2 D O Gg
27 Aug Belenenses A 1 1 D U Gg
20 Aug Sp Braga H 2 3 L O Gg
15 Aug Santa Clara A 2 2 D O Gg
07 Aug Benfica H 1 2 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Maritimo (3-5-2) Moreirense (4-3-3)
Player Pos Player Pos
Miguel Silva GK Mateus Pasinato GK
L?o Andrade DC Abdu Cont? DL
Jorge S?enz DC Lazar Rosic DC
Zainadine J?nior DC Artur Jorge DC
Vitor Costa DML Paulinho DR
Iv?n Rossi MC Gon?alo Franco MC
Pedro Pel?gio MC F?bio Pacheco MC
Bruno Xadas MC Filipe Soares MC
Claudio Winck DMR Felipe Pires FWL
Ricardinho FW Andr? Lu?s FW
Andr? Vidigal FW Walterson FWR




Basic Data

Predictions

Maritimo news and injuries



Either Ricardinho or Alipour will be paired up front with Andr? Vidigal.
Diogo Mendes is a doubt for Friday. Paulo Victor was sent off against Sporting CP last week and will serve a match ban on Friday. Pel?gio will replace him if he fails to recover in time. . Miguel Silva should deputise.


Injured player Status
Stefano Beltrame Out
Joel Tagueu Out
Paulo Victor Out
Diogo Mendes Doubtful



Moreirense news and injuries


Rafael Martins went off injured last time out and is a doubt here. .
Other than that, Jo?o Henriques will have a full squad to pick from here. Andre Luis is expected to start up front regardless after a stunning goal last time out.


Injured player Status
Rafael Martins Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 10 of Moreirense’s last 11 games (Liga NOS).
  • Moreirense have been winning at both half time and full time in their last 3 matches against Maritimo in all competitions.
  • Moreirense have won their last 3 matches against Maritimo in all competitions.
  • Maritimo have failed to win 10 of their last 11 matches (Liga NOS).
  • Moreirense have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches against Maritimo in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Maritimo is -0.222 and for the Moreirense is -0.133.
  • The home dynamic for the Maritimo is -0.31 and the dynamic as a guest for the Moreirense is -0.344.
  • The offensive ability for the Maritimo is -0.067 and for the Moreirense is 0.474.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Maritimo is -0.571 and for the Moreirense is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Maritimo 22% 32% 25% 21%
Moreirense 33% 44% 10% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.19 goals and Moreirense to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.46 goals and Moreirense to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Maritimo to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 3.64
1 4.93 2-3 2.05
2 4.03 4+ 4.2
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.25 Un 1.5 3.64
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.09
6+ 38.46 Un 2.5 1.91
Gg 1.9 Ov 3.5 4.2
NoG 2.1 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.57 3.82 2.86
2-3 goals 1.86 3.41 5.88
4+ goals 2.03 4.58 3.45
Ov 1.5 1.92 3.72 4.78
Un 1.5 2.57 3.82 2.86
Ov 2.5 1.61 9.19 3.71
Un 2.5 2.77 2.43 4.39
Ov 3.5 2.03 4.58 3.45
Un 3.5 2.07 3.55 4.26
Goal-Goal 2.31 2.69 5.1
No Goal 1.84 6.61 3.28
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.68 7.35 3.71
NG+Un 2.5 2.01 6.61 3.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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