In this article I will analyze the game between Maritimo and Moreirense for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Maritimo basic data
Maritimo latest results
|24 Sep||Sp Lisbon||A||0||1||L||U||Ng|
|07 Aug||Sp Braga||H||0||2||L||U||Ng|
Moreirense basic data
Moreirense latest results
|20 Aug||Sp Braga||H||2||3||L||O||Gg|
|15 Aug||Santa Clara||A||2||2||D||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Maritimo (3-5-2)||Moreirense (4-3-3)|
|Miguel Silva||GK||Mateus Pasinato||GK|
|L?o Andrade||DC||Abdu Cont?||DL|
|Jorge S?enz||DC||Lazar Rosic||DC|
|Zainadine J?nior||DC||Artur Jorge||DC|
|Iv?n Rossi||MC||Gon?alo Franco||MC|
|Pedro Pel?gio||MC||F?bio Pacheco||MC|
|Bruno Xadas||MC||Filipe Soares||MC|
|Claudio Winck||DMR||Felipe Pires||FWL|
Maritimo news and injuries
Either Ricardinho or Alipour will be paired up front with Andr? Vidigal.
Diogo Mendes is a doubt for Friday. Paulo Victor was sent off against Sporting CP last week and will serve a match ban on Friday. Pel?gio will replace him if he fails to recover in time. . Miguel Silva should deputise.
Moreirense news and injuries
Rafael Martins went off injured last time out and is a doubt here. .
Other than that, Jo?o Henriques will have a full squad to pick from here. Andre Luis is expected to start up front regardless after a stunning goal last time out.
Betting information and prediction
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 10 of Moreirense’s last 11 games (Liga NOS).
- Moreirense have been winning at both half time and full time in their last 3 matches against Maritimo in all competitions.
- Moreirense have won their last 3 matches against Maritimo in all competitions.
- Maritimo have failed to win 10 of their last 11 matches (Liga NOS).
- Moreirense have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches against Maritimo in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Maritimo is -0.222 and for the Moreirense is -0.133.
- The home dynamic for the Maritimo is -0.31 and the dynamic as a guest for the Moreirense is -0.344.
- The offensive ability for the Maritimo is -0.067 and for the Moreirense is 0.474.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Maritimo is -0.571 and for the Moreirense is -1.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.19 goals and Moreirense to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.46 goals and Moreirense to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Maritimo to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|