Monaco Vs Bordeaux

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Monaco and Bordeaux for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.41 4.89 7.88 1.68 2.28
Estim 1.92 3.98 4.41 2.51 1.66
Value % -18.84 4.68 9.99 -19.68 16.38



Basic Data and latest results


Monaco basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 6 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 3 0
At Home 1 1 2 33 2 4 1 3




Monaco latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Clermont A 3 1 W O Gg
22 Sep St Etienne H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Nice A 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Marseille H 0 2 L U Ng
29 Aug Troyes A 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Lens H 0 2 L U Ng
13 Aug Lorient A 0 1 L U Ng
06 Aug Nantes H 1 1 D U Gg



Bordeaux basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 6 4 2
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 2 1 42 3 4 4 0




Bordeaux latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Rennes H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Montpellier A 3 3 D O Gg
18 Sep St Etienne A 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Lens H 2 3 L O Gg
28 Aug Nice A 0 4 L O Ng
22 Aug Angers H 1 1 D U Gg
15 Aug Marseille A 2 2 D O Gg
08 Aug Clermont H 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Monaco is 0.237 and for the Bordeaux is -0.133.
  • The home dynamic for the Monaco is -0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bordeaux is 0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Monaco is 0.171 and for the Bordeaux is 0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Monaco is -1 and for the Bordeaux is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Monaco 26% 23% 39% 12%
Bordeaux 48% 30% 11% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monaco to score 2.23 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 1.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.36 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.81 0-1 3.16
1 5.32 2-3 1.95
2 3.51 4+ 5.85
3 4.39 Ov 1.5 1.46
4 9.71 Un 1.5 3.16
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.51
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.66
Gg 2.62 Ov 3.5 5.85
NoG 1.62 Un 3.5 1.21


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.9 2.47 4
2-3 goals 1.41 7.54 6.26
4+ goals 3.49 3.05 2.59
Ov 1.5 1.66 5.52 4.62
Un 1.5 2.9 2.47 4
Ov 2.5 1.78 7.13 3.35
Un 2.5 2.02 3.07 5.56
Ov 3.5 3.49 3.05 2.59
Un 3.5 1.76 4.23 5.15
Goal-Goal 2.3 3.07 4.19
No Goal 1.74 4.84 4.55
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.89 5.59 3.44
NG+Un 2.5 1.79 4.84 4.94



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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