Montpellier Vs Strasbourg

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Montpellier and Strasbourg for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.39 3.58 2.92 1.72 2.18
Estim 1.72 4.17 5.56 2.68 1.59
Value % 16.3 -3.95 -16.26 -20.83 17.02



Basic Data and latest results


Montpellier basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Home 2 1 1 58 4 3 3 1




Montpellier latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Paris SG A 0 2 L U Ng
22 Sep Bordeaux H 3 3 D O Gg
19 Sep Troyes A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep St Etienne H 2 0 W U Ng
29 Aug Lille A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Aug Lorient H 3 1 W O Gg
15 Aug Reims A 3 3 D O Gg
08 Aug Marseille H 2 3 L O Gg



Strasbourg basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 6 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 2 1
At Away 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1




Strasbourg latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Lille H 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Lens A 1 0 W U Ng
17 Sep Metz H 3 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Lyon A 1 3 L O Gg
29 Aug Brest H 3 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Troyes H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Paris SG A 2 4 L O Gg
08 Aug Angers H 0 2 L U Ng






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Montpellier (4-2-3-1) Strasbourg (3-4-1-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Jonas Omlin GK Matz Sels GK
Mihailo Ristic DL Maxime Le Marchand DC
Maxime Est?ve DC Gerzino Nyamsi DC
Mamadou Sakho DC Alexander Djiku DC
Junior Sambia DR Dimitri Lienard ML
Joris Chotard DMC Jean Eudes Aholou MC
Jordan Ferri DMC Sanjin Prcic MC
Stephy Mavididi AML Fr?d?ric Guilbert MR
T?ji Savanier AMC Kevin Gameiro AMC
Florent Mollet AMR Ludovic Ajorque FW
Val?re Germain FW Habib Diallo FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Montpellier news and injuries



. Thuler is set to miss up to six weeks after being forced off at the weekend with a thigh injury. There is some hope Mamadou Sakho could return here after nearly a month out injured.


Injured player Status
Pedro Mendes Out
Thuler Out
Mamadou Sakho Doubtful
Ambroise Oyongo Doubtful



Strasbourg news and injuries


Kevin Gameiro could play a withdrawn role in his absence, while Dimitri Lienard is also an option.
Adrien Thomasson starts a two-match ban this weekend after his red card last time out. Frederic Guilbert and Ludovic Ajorque will return to the starting XI after only coming off the bench against Lille last weekend. Majeed Waris was fit to appear off the bench last weekend but he is not expected back in the starting XI just yet.
.


Injured player Status
Lebo Mothiba Out
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Out
Adrien Thomasson Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Montpellier have won their last 3 matches against Strasbourg in all competitions.
  • Montpellier have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 home matches (Ligue 1).
  • Montpellier have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Strasbourg in all competitions.
  • Montpellier have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches against Strasbourg in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Montpellier is -0.052 and for the Strasbourg is 0.148.
  • The home dynamic for the Montpellier is 0.255 and the dynamic as a guest for the Strasbourg is -0.264.
  • The offensive ability for the Montpellier is 0.451 and for the Strasbourg is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Montpellier is -0.631 and for the Strasbourg is -0.167.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Montpellier 26% 16% 46% 13%
Strasbourg 59% 22% 9% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.5 goals and Strasbourg to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.46 goals and Strasbourg to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Montpellier to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 6.62 0-1 3.33
1 6.71 2-3 1.83
2 3.06 4+ 6.45
3 4.59 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 11.76 Un 1.5 3.33
5 17.54 Ov 2.5 2.68
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.59
Gg 3.27 Ov 3.5 6.45
NoG 1.44 Un 3.5 1.18


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.26 1.99 5.26
2-3 goals 1.22 15.57 8.79
4+ goals 3.78 2.87 2.58
Ov 1.5 1.43 7.87 5.74
Un 1.5 3.26 1.99 5.26
Ov 2.5 1.7 6.91 3.77
Un 2.5 1.74 3.37 7.84
Ov 3.5 3.78 2.87 2.58
Un 3.5 1.56 4.54 7.1
Goal-Goal 2.14 3.44 4.14
No Goal 1.58 4.6 6.61
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.9 5.02 3.66
NG+Un 2.5 1.64 4.6 7.4



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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