In this article I will analyze the game between Montpellier and Strasbourg for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Montpellier basic data
Montpellier latest results
|25 Sep||Paris SG||A||0||2||L||U||Ng|
|12 Sep||St Etienne||H||2||0||W||U||Ng|
Strasbourg basic data
Strasbourg latest results
|14 Aug||Paris SG||A||2||4||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Montpellier (4-2-3-1)||Strasbourg (3-4-1-2)|
|Jonas Omlin||GK||Matz Sels||GK|
|Mihailo Ristic||DL||Maxime Le Marchand||DC|
|Maxime Est?ve||DC||Gerzino Nyamsi||DC|
|Mamadou Sakho||DC||Alexander Djiku||DC|
|Junior Sambia||DR||Dimitri Lienard||ML|
|Joris Chotard||DMC||Jean Eudes Aholou||MC|
|Jordan Ferri||DMC||Sanjin Prcic||MC|
|Stephy Mavididi||AML||Fr?d?ric Guilbert||MR|
|T?ji Savanier||AMC||Kevin Gameiro||AMC|
|Florent Mollet||AMR||Ludovic Ajorque||FW|
|Val?re Germain||FW||Habib Diallo||FW|
Montpellier news and injuries
. Thuler is set to miss up to six weeks after being forced off at the weekend with a thigh injury. There is some hope Mamadou Sakho could return here after nearly a month out injured.
Strasbourg news and injuries
Kevin Gameiro could play a withdrawn role in his absence, while Dimitri Lienard is also an option.
Adrien Thomasson starts a two-match ban this weekend after his red card last time out. Frederic Guilbert and Ludovic Ajorque will return to the starting XI after only coming off the bench against Lille last weekend. Majeed Waris was fit to appear off the bench last weekend but he is not expected back in the starting XI just yet.
Betting information and prediction
- Montpellier have won their last 3 matches against Strasbourg in all competitions.
- Montpellier have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 home matches (Ligue 1).
- Montpellier have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Strasbourg in all competitions.
- Montpellier have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches against Strasbourg in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Montpellier is -0.052 and for the Strasbourg is 0.148.
- The home dynamic for the Montpellier is 0.255 and the dynamic as a guest for the Strasbourg is -0.264.
- The offensive ability for the Montpellier is 0.451 and for the Strasbourg is 1.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Montpellier is -0.631 and for the Strasbourg is -0.167.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.5 goals and Strasbourg to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.46 goals and Strasbourg to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Montpellier to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|