Nantes Vs Troyes

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Nantes and Troyes for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.83 3.61 4.61 2.13 1.77
Estim 2.28 3.65 3.47 2.27 1.79
Value % -10.79 -0.3 7.13 -2.9 -0.63



Basic Data and latest results


Nantes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 3 6 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 0 2 50 2 3 1 3




Nantes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Reims A 1 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Brest H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Angers A 4 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Nice H 0 2 L U Ng
27 Aug Lyon H 0 1 L U Ng
22 Aug Rennes A 0 1 L U Ng
15 Aug Metz H 2 0 W U Ng
06 Aug Monaco A 1 1 D U Gg



Troyes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 6 5 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Away 1 1 2 33 3 3 1 3




Troyes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Angers H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Lyon A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Montpellier H 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Metz A 2 0 W U Ng
29 Aug Monaco H 1 2 L O Gg
22 Aug Strasbourg A 1 1 D U Gg
15 Aug Clermont A 0 2 L U Ng
07 Aug Paris SG H 1 2 L O Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Nantes (4-2-3-1) Troyes (5-4-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Alban Lafont GK Gauthier Gallon GK
Charles Traor? DL Youssouf Kon? DL
Nicolas Pallois DC Oualid El Hajjam DC
Jean-Charles Castelletto DC Yoann Salmier DC
S?bastien Corchia DR Karim Azamoum DC
Pedro Chirivella DMC Issa Kabor? DR
Wylan Cyprien DMC Gerson Rodrigues ML
Moses Simon AML Xavier Chavalerin MC
Randal Kolo Muani AMC Rominigue Kouame MC
Ludovic Blas AMR Mama Bald? MR
Kalifa Coulibaly FW Yoann Touzghar FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Nantes news and injuries


. Willem Guebbels is fit again but unlikely to feature from the off. Fabio and Anthony Limbomb? both remain doubts after missing out against Reims.
Dennis Appiah could also be an option for the hosts at right-back.


Injured player Status
Anthony Limbombe Doubtful
F?bio Doubtful



Troyes news and injuries


Fit-again Yoann Salmier will likely replace Giraudon in defence. .
Renaud Ripart is also in the frame for the visitors. Giulian Biancoen and Jimmy Giraudon are suspended for this one.


Injured player Status
Giulian Biancone Out
Jimmy Giraudon Out
Adil Rami Out
Karim Azamoum Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Nantes have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 matches against Troyes in all competitions.
  • Nantes have won their last 4 matches against Troyes in all competitions.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Nantes’s last 3 games (Ligue 1).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Nantes is -0.281 and for the Troyes is -0.17.
  • The home dynamic for the Nantes is -0.02 and the dynamic as a guest for the Troyes is -0.24.
  • The offensive ability for the Nantes is -0.244 and for the Troyes is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Nantes is -1 and for the Troyes is -0.631.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Nantes 25% 33% 28% 14%
Troyes 35% 35% 20% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.55 goals and Troyes to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Nantes to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.3 goals and Troyes to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.24 0-1 3.41
1 4.9 2-3 1.98
2 3.76 4+ 4.9
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.35 Un 1.5 3.41
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.26
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.79
Gg 2.06 Ov 3.5 4.9
NoG 1.94 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.53 3.29 3.33
2-3 goals 2.04 4.38 3.55
4+ goals 2.68 2.91 3.52
Ov 1.5 2.19 3.83 3.54
Un 1.5 2.53 3.29 3.33
Ov 2.5 1.98 6.31 2.97
Un 2.5 2.59 2.74 4.02
Ov 3.5 2.68 2.91 3.52
Un 3.5 2.2 3.91 3.47
Goal-Goal 2.77 2.62 3.88
No Goal 1.95 5.8 3.17
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.11 5.29 2.96
NG+Un 2.5 2.06 5.8 3.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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