In this article I will analyze the game between Nice and Brest for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Nice basic data
Nice latest results
|25 Sep||St Etienne||A||3||0||W||O||Ng|
Brest basic data
Brest latest results
|20 Aug||Paris SG||H||2||4||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Nice (4-4-2)||Brest (4-2-3-1)|
|Walter Ben?tez||GK||Marco Bizot||GK|
|Melvin Bard||DL||Jere Uronen||DL|
|Jean-Clair Todibo||DC||Brendan Chardonnet||DC|
|Jordan Lotomba||DR||Rona?l Pierre-Gabriel||DR|
|Hassane Kamara||ML||Hianga’a M’Bock||DMC|
|Pablo Rosario||MC||Lucien Agoume||DMC|
|Mario Lemina||MC||Romain Faivre||AML|
|Calvin Stengs||MR||Irvin Cardona||AMC|
|Andy Delort||FW||Franck Honorat||AMR|
|Amine Gouiri||FW||Steve Mouni?||FW|
Nice news and injuries
Alexis Claude-Maurice was fit enough for a place on the bench last weekend but is not expected to start just yet. .
Jean-Clair Todibo will be recalled to the starting XI on Saturday after coming off the bench last weekend. Youcef Atal will miss out here due to an accumulation of bookings.
|Alexis Claude Maurice||Out|
Brest news and injuries
With Jere Uronen fit, look for Jean-K?vin Duverne to play in his natural central role.
Fit-again Romain del Castillo is an option in attack for the visitors. Central defender Lilian Brassier misses out here through suspension. .
|Romain Del Castillo||Doubtful|
Betting information and prediction
- Brest have failed to win their last 12 matches (Ligue 1).
- Nice have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Brest in all competitions.
- Nice have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (Ligue 1).
- Nice have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches against Brest in all competitions.
- Brest have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 away matches against Nice in all competitions.
- Nice are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Brest in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Nice is 0.459 and for the Brest is -0.667.
- The home dynamic for the Nice is 0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brest is -0.52.
- The offensive ability for the Nice is 0.482 and for the Brest is 1.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Nice is 0.485 and for the Brest is -1.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 2 goals and Brest to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 1.2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.78 goals and Brest to score 0.83 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|