Nice Vs Brest

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Nice and Brest for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.58 4.27 5.46 1.71 2.19
Estim 1.57 4.69 6.67 1.85 2.17
Value % 0.4 -2.1 -3.32 -4.43 0.42



Basic Data and latest results


Nice basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 2 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Home 1 2 0 56 2 1 2 1




Nice latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep St Etienne A 3 0 W O Ng
22 Sep Lorient A 0 1 L U Ng
19 Sep Monaco H 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Nantes A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Bordeaux H 4 0 W O Ng
14 Aug Lille A 4 0 W O Ng
08 Aug Reims H 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Brest basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 6 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 2 17 4 4 2 2




Brest latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Metz H 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Nantes A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Clermont A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Angers H 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Strasbourg A 1 3 L O Gg
20 Aug Paris SG H 2 4 L O Gg
15 Aug Rennes H 1 1 D U Gg
07 Aug Lyon A 1 1 D U Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Nice (4-4-2) Brest (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Walter Ben?tez GK Marco Bizot GK
Melvin Bard DL Jere Uronen DL
Dante DC Jean-K?vin Duverne DC
Jean-Clair Todibo DC Brendan Chardonnet DC
Jordan Lotomba DR Rona?l Pierre-Gabriel DR
Hassane Kamara ML Hianga’a M’Bock DMC
Pablo Rosario MC Lucien Agoume DMC
Mario Lemina MC Romain Faivre AML
Calvin Stengs MR Irvin Cardona AMC
Andy Delort FW Franck Honorat AMR
Amine Gouiri FW Steve Mouni? FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Nice news and injuries


Alexis Claude-Maurice was fit enough for a place on the bench last weekend but is not expected to start just yet. .
Jean-Clair Todibo will be recalled to the starting XI on Saturday after coming off the bench last weekend. Youcef Atal will miss out here due to an accumulation of bookings.


Injured player Status
Justin Kluivert Out
Kasper Dolberg Out
Alexis Claude Maurice Out
Youcef Atal Out



Brest news and injuries


With Jere Uronen fit, look for Jean-K?vin Duverne to play in his natural central role.
Fit-again Romain del Castillo is an option in attack for the visitors. Central defender Lilian Brassier misses out here through suspension. .


Injured player Status
Christophe H?relle Out
S?bastien Cibois Out
Lilian Brassier Out
Romain Del Castillo Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Brest have failed to win their last 12 matches (Ligue 1).
  • Nice have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Brest in all competitions.
  • Nice have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (Ligue 1).
  • Nice have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches against Brest in all competitions.
  • Brest have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 away matches against Nice in all competitions.
  • Nice are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Brest in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Nice is 0.459 and for the Brest is -0.667.
  • The home dynamic for the Nice is 0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brest is -0.52.
  • The offensive ability for the Nice is 0.482 and for the Brest is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Nice is 0.485 and for the Brest is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Nice 15% 24% 30% 31%
Brest 45% 33% 18% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 2 goals and Brest to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 1.2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.78 goals and Brest to score 0.83 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.15 0-1 4.55
1 6.49 2-3 1.89
2 4.17 4+ 3.98
3 3.47 Ov 1.5 1.28
4 5.99 Un 1.5 4.55
5 14.29 Ov 2.5 1.86
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 2.17
Gg 2.12 Ov 3.5 3.98
NoG 1.89 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.08 3.33 4.58
2-3 goals 1.42 6.86 6.77
4+ goals 1.59 3.59 10.91
Ov 1.5 1.47 5.3 7.71
Un 1.5 2.08 3.33 4.58
Ov 2.5 1.36 7.7 7.28
Un 2.5 1.9 3.22 6.13
Ov 3.5 1.59 3.59 10.91
Un 3.5 1.56 5.23 5.94
Goal-Goal 1.83 3.2 7.03
No Goal 1.39 8 6.44
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.53 5.63 5.88
NG+Un 2.5 1.58 8 5.11



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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