Northampton Vs Sutton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Northampton and Sutton for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.17 3.29 3.31 2.24 1.65
Estim 2.46 3.73 3.08 2.2 1.83
Value % -5.43 -3.59 2.26 0.81 -5.96



Basic Data and latest results


Northampton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 3 1 5
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 1 1 58 4 2 1 3




Northampton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Salford A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Swindon H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Sep Newport County A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Forest Green A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Scunthorpe H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Crawley Town A 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Rochdale H 1 3 L O Gg
14 Aug Colchester A 1 0 W U Ng



Sutton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 1 2
At Away 0 2 2 17 2 3 1 3




Sutton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Carlisle H 4 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Exeter A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Sep Hartlepool H 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Stevenage H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Oldham H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Scunthorpe A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Salford A 0 0 D U Ng
07 Aug Forest Green A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Northampton is 0.163 and for the Sutton is 0.2.
  • The home dynamic for the Northampton is 0.216 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sutton is -0.496.
  • The offensive ability for the Northampton is 0.171 and for the Sutton is 0.474.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Northampton is 0.056 and for the Sutton is -0.142.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Northampton 31% 24% 32% 12%
Sutton 32% 36% 21% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.29 goals and Sutton to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Northampton to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.26 goals and Sutton to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.1 0-1 3.46
1 5.26 2-3 2.01
2 3.91 4+ 4.69
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.19 Un 1.5 3.46
5 16.39 Ov 2.5 2.2
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 2.13 Ov 3.5 4.69
NoG 1.89 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.8 2.92 2.54
2-3 goals 1.91 5.66 3.34
4+ goals 3.04 2.63 3.44
Ov 1.5 2.15 4.21 3.37
Un 1.5 3.8 2.92 2.54
Ov 2.5 2 5.62 3.12
Un 2.5 3.04 2.91 3.04
Ov 3.5 3.04 2.63 3.44
Un 3.5 2.34 4.21 2.99
Goal-Goal 2.49 2.78 4.2
No Goal 2.43 5.35 2.49
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.02 4.72 3.41
NG+Un 2.5 2.55 5.35 2.55



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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