Notts County Vs Woking

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Notts County and Woking for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.83 3.62 4.04 1.78 2.03
Estim 2.3 3.82 3.29 2.01 1.99
Value % -11.17 -1.45 5.64 -6.43 0.99



Basic Data and latest results


Notts County basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 5 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Home 3 1 0 83 4 3 2 2




Notts County latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Altrincham A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Maidenhead H 1 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Wealdstone H 3 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Weymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Aldershot H 3 2 W O Gg
30 Aug Wrexham A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Torquay H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Barnet A 5 0 W O Ng



Woking basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 5 5 1
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Away 2 0 2 50 3 3 3 1




Woking latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Chesterfield H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Eastleigh A 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Wrexham A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Aug Torquay A 4 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Halifax H 2 3 L O Gg
21 Aug Wealdstone A 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Notts County is 0.311 and for the Woking is -0.015.
  • The home dynamic for the Notts County is 0.749 and the dynamic as a guest for the Woking is -0.08.
  • The offensive ability for the Notts County is 0.451 and for the Woking is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Notts County is -0.571 and for the Woking is -0.631.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Notts County 26% 29% 25% 20%
Woking 31% 36% 22% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.71 goals and Woking to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.39 goals and Woking to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.2 0-1 3.76
1 5.43 2-3 2.08
2 4.22 4+ 3.97
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.33 Un 1.5 3.76
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.99
Gg 1.97 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 2.03 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.92 3.24 2.86
2-3 goals 2.11 4.62 3.23
4+ goals 2.19 3.32 4.13
Ov 1.5 2.14 4.07 3.49
Un 1.5 2.92 3.24 2.86
Ov 2.5 1.86 6.53 3.22
Un 2.5 2.99 2.7 3.38
Ov 3.5 2.19 3.32 4.13
Un 3.5 2.34 4.02 3.09
Goal-Goal 2.5 2.82 4.09
No Goal 2.13 6 2.75
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.99 5.3 3.25
NG+Un 2.5 2.38 6 2.68



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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