Osasuna Vs Vallecano

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Osasuna and Vallecano for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.25 3.39 3.34 2.09 1.79
Estim 2.17 3.76 3.65 2.02 1.98
Value % 1.64 -2.9 -2.54 1.66 -5.36



Basic Data and latest results


Osasuna basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 0 2 2 17 2 2 2 2




Osasuna latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Mallorca A 3 2 W O Gg
23 Sep Betis H 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Alaves A 2 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Valencia H 1 4 L O Gg
29 Aug Cadiz A 3 2 W O Gg
23 Aug Celta H 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Espanol H 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Vallecano basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 2 3 0
At Away 1 1 2 33 2 4 2 2




Vallecano latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Cadiz H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Ath Bilbao A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Getafe H 3 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Levante A 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Granada H 4 0 W O Ng
22 Aug Sociedad A 0 1 L U Ng
15 Aug Sevilla A 0 3 L O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Osasuna (4-3-3) Vallecano (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Sergio Herrera GK Stole Dimitrievski GK
Manu S?nchez DL Fran Garc?a DL
Aridane Hern?ndez DC Alejandro Catena DC
David Garc?a DC Esteban Saveljich DC
Nacho Vidal DR Iv?n Balliu DR
Lucas Torr? MC Santi Comesana DMC
Jon Moncayola MC Path? Ciss DMC
Darko Brasanac MC ?lvaro Garc?a AML
Rub?n Garc?a FWL ?scar Trejo AMC
Kike Garc?a FW Isi Palaz?n AMR
Javi Martinez FWR Radamel Falcao FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Osasuna news and injuries



Jagoba Arrasate has been very consistent in his team selection and it’s working. Osasuna are not expected to make any changes having picked up a win last time out. Ante Budimir, Kike Barja and Javier Ontiveros all remain doubts, as they have been for the last week or so. .


Injured player Status
Kike Barja Doubtful
Ante Budimir Doubtful
Javier Ontiveros Doubtful



Vallecano news and injuries


Martin Marquelanz remains out with a knee injury and won’t return until at least October. There is a fresh doubt over centre-back Estebam Saveljich, but he is still hoping to be fit enough to start here.
Rayo aren’t expected to make changes given their impressive run of form. .


Injured player Status
Mart?n Merquelanz Out
Esteban Saveljich Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Rayo Vallecano have won their last 3 matches (LaLiga).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Rayo Vallecano’s last 3 games (LaLiga).
  • Rayo Vallecano have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches (LaLiga).
  • Osasuna have failed to win their last 5 home matches (LaLiga).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Osasuna is 0.17 and for the Vallecano is 0.57.
  • The home dynamic for the Osasuna is -0.553 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vallecano is -0.176.
  • The offensive ability for the Osasuna is 0.617 and for the Vallecano is 0.611.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Osasuna is -0.288 and for the Vallecano is -0.253.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Osasuna 22% 34% 23% 22%
Vallecano 31% 39% 19% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.36 goals and Vallecano to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.44 goals and Vallecano to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.71 0-1 3.86
1 5.24 2-3 2.04
2 4.08 4+ 3.97
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.13 Un 1.5 3.86
5 15.15 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 2.16 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.42 3.81 3.08
2-3 goals 2.15 3.7 3.76
4+ goals 2 3.82 4.2
Ov 1.5 2.1 3.74 3.9
Un 1.5 2.42 3.81 3.08
Ov 2.5 1.76 7.52 3.35
Un 2.5 2.83 2.52 4
Ov 3.5 2 3.82 4.2
Un 3.5 2.24 3.74 3.5
Goal-Goal 2.51 2.71 4.3
No Goal 1.88 6.81 3.11
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.89 6.14 3.24
NG+Un 2.5 2.09 6.81 2.95



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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