Peterboro Vs Bristol City

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Peterboro and Bristol City for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.55 3.3 2.82 2.06 1.8
Estim 2.55 3.72 2.96 2.1 1.91
Value % 0 -3.42 -1.68 -0.92 -3.2



Basic Data and latest results


Peterboro basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 1 2 1
At Home 2 2 1 53 3 3 3 2




Peterboro latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Sep Bournemouth H 0 0 D U Ng
24 Sep Coventry A 0 3 L O Ng
18 Sep Birmingham H 3 0 W O Ng
14 Sep Reading A 1 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Sheffield United A 2 6 L O Gg
28 Aug West Brom H 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Preston A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Aug Cardiff H 2 2 D O Gg



Bristol City basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 3 0 2 60 4 5 4 1




Bristol City latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Sep Millwall A 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Fulham H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep QPR A 2 1 W O Gg
15 Sep Luton H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Preston H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Cardiff A 2 1 W O Gg
20 Aug Swansea H 0 1 L U Ng
17 Aug Reading A 3 2 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Peterboro is -0.459 and for the Bristol City is 0.111.
  • The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 0.169 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bristol City is 0.208.
  • The offensive ability for the Peterboro is -0.451 and for the Bristol City is 0.021.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is -0.142 and for the Bristol City is -0.657.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Peterboro 28% 32% 25% 15%
Bristol City 31% 33% 23% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.25 goals and Bristol City to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.28 goals and Bristol City to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.76 0-1 3.65
1 5.29 2-3 2.04
2 4.02 4+ 4.24
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.67 Un 1.5 3.65
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 2.1
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.91
Gg 2 Ov 3.5 4.24
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.8 3.22 3.01
2-3 goals 2.35 4.61 2.79
4+ goals 2.78 2.99 3.28
Ov 1.5 2.47 3.92 2.94
Un 1.5 2.8 3.22 3.01
Ov 2.5 2.21 6.03 2.62
Un 2.5 2.97 2.74 3.35
Ov 3.5 2.78 2.99 3.28
Un 3.5 2.49 3.99 2.87
Goal-Goal 2.96 2.71 3.41
No Goal 2.24 5.86 2.61
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.34 5 2.69
NG+Un 2.5 2.37 5.86 2.67



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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