Ponferradina Vs Valladolid

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ponferradina and Valladolid for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.3 3.13 2.3 2.39 1.62
Estim 1.73 4.1 5.59 2.2 1.83
Value % 27.5 -7.56 -25.59 3.61 -7.08



Basic Data and latest results


Ponferradina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 2 1
At Home 4 0 0 100 4 1 2 2




Ponferradina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Malaga H 4 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Almeria H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Tenerife A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Girona H 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Eibar A 1 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Alcorcon H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Valladolid basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 3 3 1 5
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 0 3
At Away 1 1 2 33 2 3 1 3




Valladolid latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Alcorcon H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Girona A 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Tenerife H 0 2 L U Ng
05 Sep Burgos A 0 3 L O Ng
29 Aug Lugo A 2 0 W U Ng
20 Aug Zaragoza H 2 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Las Palmas A 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ponferradina is 0.281 and for the Valladolid is -0.037.
  • The home dynamic for the Ponferradina is 0.961 and the dynamic as a guest for the Valladolid is -0.304.
  • The offensive ability for the Ponferradina is 0.554 and for the Valladolid is -0.474.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ponferradina is 0.142 and for the Valladolid is 0.116.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ponferradina 18% 33% 26% 24%
Valladolid 46% 35% 13% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 0.95 goals and Valladolid to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.55 goals and Valladolid to score 0.81 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.35 0-1 3.41
1 4.72 2-3 1.97
2 3.94 4+ 5
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.3 Un 1.5 3.41
5 20.83 Ov 2.5 2.21
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 2.24 Ov 3.5 5
NoG 1.81 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.95 3.62 4.73
2-3 goals 1.62 4.45 6.34
4+ goals 1.75 4.08 5.41
Ov 1.5 1.66 4.34 6.04
Un 1.5 1.95 3.62 4.73
Ov 2.5 1.46 9.24 4.87
Un 2.5 2.06 2.81 6.36
Ov 3.5 1.75 4.08 5.41
Un 3.5 1.73 4.1 5.63
Goal-Goal 2.21 2.74 5.51
No Goal 1.48 6.84 5.65
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.64 6.78 4.1
NG+Un 2.5 1.63 6.84 5.03



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *