Pordenone Vs Vicenza

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Pordenone and Vicenza for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.25 3 3.45 2.4 1.62
Estim 2.72 3.56 2.86 2.18 1.85
Value % -7.68 -5.24 5.98 4.2 -7.67



Basic Data and latest results


Pordenone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 2 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2




Pordenone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Monza A 1 3 L O Gg
21 Sep Reggina H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Cittadella A 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Parma H 0 4 L O Ng
29 Aug Spal A 0 5 L O Ng
21 Aug Perugia H 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Vicenza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 0 6 0 3 6 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Away 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1




Vicenza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Cremonese H 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Spal A 2 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Pisa H 1 3 L O Gg
12 Sep Cosenza A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Frosinone H 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Cittadella A 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Pordenone is -0.815 and for the Vicenza is -1.
  • The home dynamic for the Pordenone is -0.624 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vicenza is -0.96.
  • The offensive ability for the Pordenone is -0.731 and for the Vicenza is -0.368.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Pordenone is -1 and for the Vicenza is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Pordenone 27% 36% 27% 10%
Vicenza 27% 39% 21% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.24 goals and Vicenza to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Pordenone to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.22 goals and Vicenza to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.65
1 4.98 2-3 1.95
2 3.73 4+ 4.65
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.65
5 17.54 Ov 2.5 2.17
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 1.87 Ov 3.5 4.65
NoG 2.14 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.82 3.75 2.63
2-3 goals 2.45 3.72 3.09
4+ goals 3.41 3.03 2.65
Ov 1.5 2.68 3.48 2.95
Un 1.5 2.82 3.75 2.63
Ov 2.5 2.32 6.48 2.41
Un 2.5 3.17 2.57 3.39
Ov 3.5 3.41 3.03 2.65
Un 3.5 2.57 3.73 2.91
Goal-Goal 3.16 2.56 3.42
No Goal 2.34 6.41 2.4
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.34 5.58 2.54
NG+Un 2.5 2.36 6.41 2.52



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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