Port Vale Vs Leyton Orient

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Port Vale and Leyton Orient for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.31 3.2 3.19 2.31 1.62
Estim 2.8 3.68 2.7 2.22 1.82
Value % -7.58 -4.08 5.69 1.76 -6.78



Basic Data and latest results


Port Vale basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 3 2 4
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Home 1 2 1 42 2 1 1 3




Port Vale latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Scunthorpe A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Harrogate H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Swindon A 2 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Rochdale H 2 3 L O Gg
28 Aug Forest Green A 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Stevenage A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Aug Carlisle H 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Tranmere H 0 0 D U Ng



Leyton Orient basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 3 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 1 2 1
At Away 1 3 0 50 4 4 2 2




Leyton Orient latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Mansfield H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Bristol Rvs A 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Oldham H 4 0 W O Ng
04 Sep Newport County A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Bradford H 2 0 W U Ng
24 Aug Harrogate H 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Carlisle A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Exeter H 3 0 W O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Port Vale is 0.541 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.37.
  • The home dynamic for the Port Vale is -0.004 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leyton Orient is 0.28.
  • The offensive ability for the Port Vale is 1 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Port Vale is 0.227 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Port Vale 33% 28% 27% 12%
Leyton Orient 29% 35% 22% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.23 goals and Leyton Orient to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.17 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.31 0-1 3.36
1 4.98 2-3 2.05
2 3.97 4+ 4.67
3 4.24 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.25 Un 1.5 3.36
5 16.39 Ov 2.5 2.22
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.82
Gg 2.11 Ov 3.5 4.67
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.59 3.07 2.53
2-3 goals 2.36 4.88 2.7
4+ goals 3.19 2.85 2.97
Ov 1.5 2.56 4.01 2.77
Un 1.5 3.59 3.07 2.53
Ov 2.5 2.3 6 2.51
Un 2.5 3.42 2.79 2.86
Ov 3.5 3.19 2.85 2.97
Un 3.5 2.71 3.99 2.63
Goal-Goal 2.92 2.7 3.48
No Goal 2.7 5.43 2.24
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.3 4.97 2.74
NG+Un 2.5 2.8 5.43 2.34



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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