Porto Vs Pacos Ferreira

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Porto and Pacos Ferreira for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.26 5.73 10.96 1.65 2.27
Estim 1.57 4.48 7.14 2.36 1.73
Value % -15.67 4.87 4.88 -18.23 13.75



Basic Data and latest results


Porto basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 4 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 0 2 1




Porto latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Sep Gil Vicente A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Moreirense H 5 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Sp Lisbon A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Arouca H 3 0 W O Ng
22 Aug Maritimo A 1 1 D U Gg
15 Aug Famalicao A 2 1 W O Gg
08 Aug Belenenses H 2 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Pacos Ferreira basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 4 3 3
Last 3 0 3 0 33 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2




Pacos Ferreira latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Belenenses H 2 2 D O Gg
19 Sep Vizela A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Sp Braga H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Portimonense A 1 0 W U Ng
23 Aug Estoril H 1 3 L O Gg
16 Aug Boavista A 0 3 L O Ng
08 Aug Famalicao H 2 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Porto is 0.681 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.126.
  • The home dynamic for the Porto is 0.922 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Porto is 1 and for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.126.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Porto is -0.202 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.227.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Porto 18% 31% 26% 25%
Pacos Ferreira 58% 22% 17% 2%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Porto to score 2.4 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 0.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 1.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Porto to score 1.58 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 0.63 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.62 0-1 3.09
1 4.55 2-3 1.94
2 3.95 4+ 6.21
3 3.82 Ov 1.5 1.48
4 9.35 Un 1.5 3.09
5 20.41 Ov 2.5 2.36
6+ 200 Un 2.5 1.73
Gg 2.93 Ov 3.5 6.21
NoG 1.52 Un 3.5 1.19


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.79 3.12 8.31
2-3 goals 1.44 7.57 5.79
4+ goals 1.63 3.16 14.64
Ov 1.5 1.48 5.68 6.76
Un 1.5 1.79 3.12 8.31
Ov 2.5 1.4 8.29 6.13
Un 2.5 1.72 3.35 8.24
Ov 3.5 1.63 3.16 14.64
Un 3.5 1.56 4.88 6.55
Goal-Goal 2.17 2.87 5.25
No Goal 1.37 6.34 8.91
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.74 5.35 4.2
NG+Un 2.5 1.52 6.34 7.27



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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