In this article I will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Sunderland for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Portsmouth basic data
Portsmouth latest results
|11 Sep||Milton Keynes Dons||A||0||1||L||U||Ng|
Sunderland basic data
Sunderland latest results
|18 Sep||Fleetwood Town||A||2||2||D||O||Gg|
|21 Aug||AFC Wimbledon||H||1||0||W||U||Ng|
|14 Aug||Milton Keynes Dons||A||2||1||W||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Portsmouth (3-4-1-2)||Sunderland (4-2-3-1)|
|Gavin Bazunu||GK||Ron-Thorben Hoffmann||GK|
|Shaun Williams||DC||Dennis Cirkin||DL|
|Sean Raggett||DC||Tom Flanagan||DC|
|Paul Downing||DC||Bailey Wright||DC|
|Lee Brown||ML||Carl Winchester||DR|
|Joe Morrell||MC||Luke O’Nien||DMC|
|Ryan Tunnicliffe||MC||Corry Evans||DMC|
|Mahlon Romeo||MR||Aiden McGeady||AML|
|Marcus Harness||AMC||Aiden O’Brien||AMC|
|Ronan Curtis||FW||Nathan Broadhead||AMR|
|John Marquis||FW||Ross Stewart||FW|
Portsmouth news and injuries
. Clark Robertson missed the Burton defeat and is set to miss out here once again. Reeco Hackett-Fairchild will be hoping his late strike off the bench against the Brewers will earn him a starting place.
Sunderland news and injuries
. Nathan Broadhead is doubtful after picking up a hamstring injury against Cheltenham, although in better news, Dennis Cirkin could be available after missing the 5-0 victory following suspected concussion last weekend.
Betting information and prediction
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Portsmouth’s last 4 games (League One).
- Portsmouth have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 home matches against Sunderland in all competitions.
- Sunderland have won 5 of their last 6 matches (League One).
- Portsmouth have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches (League One).
- Portsmouth have failed to win their last 7 matches (League One).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Portsmouth is -0.644 and for the Sunderland is 0.83.
- The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is 0.176 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sunderland is -0.024.
- The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.202 and for the Sunderland is 1.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -1 and for the Sunderland is 0.202.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.12 goals and Sunderland to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.41 goals and Sunderland to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|