Portsmouth Vs Sunderland

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Sunderland for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.91 3.36 2.4 2.04 1.8
Estim 2.19 3.77 3.57 2.06 1.95
Value % 11.3 -3.24 -13.66 -0.48 -4.27



Basic Data and latest results


Portsmouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 4 6 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 1 1 58 4 2 2 2




Portsmouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Burton A 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Charlton A 2 2 D O Gg
21 Sep Plymouth H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Cambridge H 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Milton Keynes Dons A 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Wigan A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Doncaster A 0 0 D U Ng
17 Aug Shrewsbury H 1 0 W U Ng



Sunderland basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 6 3 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1




Sunderland latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Cheltenham H 5 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Bolton H 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Fleetwood Town A 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Accrington H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Wycombe H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Aug AFC Wimbledon H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Burton A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Aug Milton Keynes Dons A 2 1 W O Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Portsmouth (3-4-1-2) Sunderland (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Gavin Bazunu GK Ron-Thorben Hoffmann GK
Shaun Williams DC Dennis Cirkin DL
Sean Raggett DC Tom Flanagan DC
Paul Downing DC Bailey Wright DC
Lee Brown ML Carl Winchester DR
Joe Morrell MC Luke O’Nien DMC
Ryan Tunnicliffe MC Corry Evans DMC
Mahlon Romeo MR Aiden McGeady AML
Marcus Harness AMC Aiden O’Brien AMC
Ronan Curtis FW Nathan Broadhead AMR
John Marquis FW Ross Stewart FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Portsmouth news and injuries



. Clark Robertson missed the Burton defeat and is set to miss out here once again. Reeco Hackett-Fairchild will be hoping his late strike off the bench against the Brewers will earn him a starting place.


Injured player Status
Clark Robertson Out



Sunderland news and injuries



. Nathan Broadhead is doubtful after picking up a hamstring injury against Cheltenham, although in better news, Dennis Cirkin could be available after missing the 5-0 victory following suspected concussion last weekend.


Injured player Status
Jordan Willis Out
Denver Hume Out
Lynden Gooch Out
Dennis Cirkin Doubtful
Nathan Broadhead Doubtful
Callum Doyle Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Portsmouth’s last 4 games (League One).
  • Portsmouth have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 home matches against Sunderland in all competitions.
  • Sunderland have won 5 of their last 6 matches (League One).
  • Portsmouth have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches (League One).
  • Portsmouth have failed to win their last 7 matches (League One).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Portsmouth is -0.644 and for the Sunderland is 0.83.
  • The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is 0.176 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sunderland is -0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.202 and for the Sunderland is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -1 and for the Sunderland is 0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Portsmouth 22% 32% 27% 18%
Sunderland 33% 36% 20% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.12 goals and Sunderland to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.41 goals and Sunderland to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.8
1 5.32 2-3 2.02
2 4 4+ 4.15
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.45 Un 1.5 3.8
5 15.15 Ov 2.5 2.05
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.95
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 4.15
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.44 3.51 3.29
2-3 goals 2.02 4.28 3.67
4+ goals 2.34 3.26 3.77
Ov 1.5 2.12 3.88 3.7
Un 1.5 2.44 3.51 3.29
Ov 2.5 1.88 6.58 3.16
Un 2.5 2.6 2.69 4.1
Ov 3.5 2.34 3.26 3.77
Un 3.5 2.15 3.97 3.53
Goal-Goal 2.62 2.73 3.98
No Goal 1.87 6.43 3.23
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.03 5.43 3.09
NG+Un 2.5 2.02 6.43 3.18



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *