PSV Eindhoven Vs Sparta Rotterdam

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between PSV Eindhoven and Sparta Rotterdam for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.21 6.78 12.5 1.46 2.7
Estim 1.74 4.41 5.05 1.9 2.11
Value % -25.17 7.93 11.8 -15.86 10.36



Basic Data and latest results


PSV Eindhoven basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 5 6 0
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 3 0
At Home 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0




PSV Eindhoven latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Willem II A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Go Ahead Eagles A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Feyenoord H 0 4 L O Ng
11 Sep AZ Alkmaar A 3 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Groningen H 5 2 W O Gg
21 Aug Cambuur H 4 1 W O Gg
14 Aug Heracles A 2 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Sparta Rotterdam basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 6 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Away 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2




Sparta Rotterdam latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Cambuur H 0 4 L O Ng
22 Sep Zwolle A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Sep Nijmegen H 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep For Sittard H 3 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Go Ahead Eagles A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Heracles H 1 1 D U Gg
15 Aug Utrecht A 0 4 L O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.259 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.185.
  • The home dynamic for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.616.
  • The offensive ability for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.513 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.021.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the PSV Eindhoven is -0.631 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
PSV Eindhoven 21% 18% 35% 25%
Sparta Rotterdam 39% 37% 16% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 2.77 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 0.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.24 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 2.3 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 1.65 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.9 0-1 4.29
1 6.71 2-3 1.94
2 4.17 4+ 3.98
3 3.64 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 6.06 Un 1.5 4.29
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 1.9
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 2.11
Gg 2.1 Ov 3.5 3.98
NoG 1.91 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.28 2.77 2.99
2-3 goals 1.4 7.8 6.44
4+ goals 1.86 3.26 6.44
Ov 1.5 1.52 5.36 6.44
Un 1.5 3.28 2.77 2.99
Ov 2.5 1.44 6.83 6.26
Un 2.5 2.25 3.15 4.19
Ov 3.5 1.86 3.26 6.44
Un 3.5 1.7 4.99 4.73
Goal-Goal 1.8 3.33 7
No Goal 1.69 6.23 4.05
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.55 5.32 6.03
NG+Un 2.5 1.94 6.23 3.6



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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