QPR Vs Preston

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between QPR and Preston for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.11 3.47 3.47 1.97 1.89
Estim 1.94 3.94 4.35 1.95 2.05
Value % 4.15 -3.44 -5.83 0.52 -4.13



Basic Data and latest results


QPR basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 6 4 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Home 2 2 1 53 5 3 2 3




QPR latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Birmingham H 2 0 W U Ng
24 Sep West Brom A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Bristol City H 1 2 L O Gg
14 Sep Bournemouth A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Reading A 3 3 D O Gg
28 Aug Coventry H 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Barnsley H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Aug Middlesbrough A 3 2 W O Gg



Preston basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 5 0 44 4 4 2 4
Last 3 0 3 0 33 2 2 0 3
At Away 0 3 2 20 2 3 2 3




Preston latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Stoke H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Birmingham A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep West Brom H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Sep Sheffield United A 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Bristol City A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Swansea H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Peterboro H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Huddersfield A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the QPR is -0.185 and for the Preston is 0.133.
  • The home dynamic for the QPR is 0.2 and the dynamic as a guest for the Preston is -0.368.
  • The offensive ability for the QPR is 1 and for the Preston is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the QPR is -0.227 and for the Preston is -0.227.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
QPR 18% 30% 31% 21%
Preston 34% 38% 20% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.47 goals and Preston to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.54 goals and Preston to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.13 0-1 4.31
1 5.88 2-3 1.93
2 3.91 4+ 4.02
3 3.8 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 6.06 Un 1.5 4.31
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 1.95
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 2.05
Gg 1.85 Ov 3.5 4.02
NoG 2.17 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.3 3.74 3.36
2-3 goals 1.75 4.59 4.72
4+ goals 2.09 3.15 4.88
Ov 1.5 1.85 4 4.77
Un 1.5 2.3 3.74 3.36
Ov 2.5 1.66 6.48 4.1
Un 2.5 2.35 2.79 4.65
Ov 3.5 2.09 3.15 4.88
Un 3.5 1.89 4.29 4.2
Goal-Goal 2.27 2.81 4.91
No Goal 1.65 7.42 3.83
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.79 5.41 3.88
NG+Un 2.5 1.8 7.42 3.57



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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