In this article I will analyze the game between RB Leipzig and Bochum for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
RB Leipzig basic data
RB Leipzig latest results
|18 Sep||FC Koln||A||1||1||D||U||Gg|
|11 Sep||Bayern Munich||H||1||4||L||O||Gg|
Bochum basic data
Bochum latest results
|18 Sep||Bayern Munich||A||0||7||L||O||Ng|
|28 Aug||FC Koln||A||1||2||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|RB Leipzig (4-4-1-1)||Bochum (4-3-2-1)|
|P?ter Gul?csi||GK||Manuel Riemann||GK|
|Josko Gvardiol||DL||Konstantinos Stafylidis||DL|
|Willi Orban||DC||Armel Bella Kotchap||DC|
|Mohamed Simakan||DC||Vasilios Lampropoulos||DC|
|Nordi Mukiele||DR||Danilo Soares||DR|
|Christopher Nkunku||ML||Robert Tesche||MC|
|Tyler Adams||MC||Eduard L?wen||MC|
|Amadou Haidara||MC||Anthony Losilla||MC|
|Dominik Szoboszlai||MR||Elvis Rexhbecaj||AMC|
|Emil Forsberg||AMC||Gerrit Holtmann||AMC|
|Andr? Silva||FW||Sebastian Polter||FW|
RB Leipzig news and injuries
Youngster Josko Gvardiol has signed from Dynamo Zagreb and could keep out ex-Manchester City man Angelino. Dani Olmo is now sidelined for a few weeks.
Mohamed Simakan has signed from Strasbourg in France and has been reasonably impressive in defence so far. Marcelo Saracchi is recovering from an ACL injury, while Marcel Halstenberg has an ankle injury. Brian Brobbey will compete with Andre Silva up front, but the latter will win that battle, despite being short of goals after his summer move from Eintracht Frankfurt. .
Bochum news and injuries
Danny Blum is over his knee injury, while defender Cristan Gamboa has had an operation on his shoulder and will be out for several weeks. Maxim Leitsch is nearing a return from a muscle injury, but Erhan Masovic could step into defence.
Saulo Decarli is almost over a thigh injury, while Herbert Bockhorn is fit after his bout of COVID-19.
Key man Simon Zoller suffered an ACL injury in training and will not play again this year. . Striker Sebastian Polter has signed on a free from Fortuna Sittard and could start up front.
Betting information and prediction
- RBL have won their last 5 matches against Bochum in all competitions.
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in RBL’s last 4 home games (Bundesliga).
- Bochum have lost their last 3 away matches (Bundesliga).
- RBL have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches against Bochum in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the RB Leipzig is -0.126 and for the Bochum is -0.504.
- The home dynamic for the RB Leipzig is 0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bochum is -0.96.
- The offensive ability for the RB Leipzig is 0.171 and for the Bochum is -0.474.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the RB Leipzig is -0.202 and for the Bochum is -0.202.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 2.88 goals and Bochum to score 0.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.37 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 2.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 2.04 goals and Bochum to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.95 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|