RB Leipzig Vs Bochum

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between RB Leipzig and Bochum for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.23 6.81 12.97 1.41 2.88
Estim 1.34 7.09 8.93 1.43 3.32
Value % -6.67 -0.58 3.49 -0.99 -4.6



Basic Data and latest results


RB Leipzig basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Home 2 0 1 67 3 1 3 0




RB Leipzig latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Hertha H 6 0 W O Ng
18 Sep FC Koln A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Bayern Munich H 1 4 L O Gg
29 Aug Wolfsburg A 0 1 L U Ng
20 Aug Stuttgart H 4 0 W O Ng
15 Aug Mainz A 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Bochum basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 4 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 2 2 1
At Away 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1




Bochum latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Stuttgart H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Bayern Munich A 0 7 L O Ng
12 Sep Hertha H 1 3 L O Gg
28 Aug FC Koln A 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Mainz H 2 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Wolfsburg A 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


RB Leipzig (4-4-1-1) Bochum (4-3-2-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
P?ter Gul?csi GK Manuel Riemann GK
Josko Gvardiol DL Konstantinos Stafylidis DL
Willi Orban DC Armel Bella Kotchap DC
Mohamed Simakan DC Vasilios Lampropoulos DC
Nordi Mukiele DR Danilo Soares DR
Christopher Nkunku ML Robert Tesche MC
Tyler Adams MC Eduard L?wen MC
Amadou Haidara MC Anthony Losilla MC
Dominik Szoboszlai MR Elvis Rexhbecaj AMC
Emil Forsberg AMC Gerrit Holtmann AMC
Andr? Silva FW Sebastian Polter FW




Basic Data

Predictions

RB Leipzig news and injuries



Youngster Josko Gvardiol has signed from Dynamo Zagreb and could keep out ex-Manchester City man Angelino. Dani Olmo is now sidelined for a few weeks.
Mohamed Simakan has signed from Strasbourg in France and has been reasonably impressive in defence so far. Marcelo Saracchi is recovering from an ACL injury, while Marcel Halstenberg has an ankle injury. Brian Brobbey will compete with Andre Silva up front, but the latter will win that battle, despite being short of goals after his summer move from Eintracht Frankfurt. .


Injured player Status
Marcel Halstenberg Out
Marcelo Saracchi Out
Dani Olmo Out



Bochum news and injuries


Danny Blum is over his knee injury, while defender Cristan Gamboa has had an operation on his shoulder and will be out for several weeks. Maxim Leitsch is nearing a return from a muscle injury, but Erhan Masovic could step into defence.
Saulo Decarli is almost over a thigh injury, while Herbert Bockhorn is fit after his bout of COVID-19.
Key man Simon Zoller suffered an ACL injury in training and will not play again this year. . Striker Sebastian Polter has signed on a free from Fortuna Sittard and could start up front.


Injured player Status
Cristian Gamboa Out
Simon Zoller Out
Maxim Leitsch Doubtful
Saulo Decarli Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • RBL have won their last 5 matches against Bochum in all competitions.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in RBL’s last 4 home games (Bundesliga).
  • Bochum have lost their last 3 away matches (Bundesliga).
  • RBL have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches against Bochum in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the RB Leipzig is -0.126 and for the Bochum is -0.504.
  • The home dynamic for the RB Leipzig is 0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bochum is -0.96.
  • The offensive ability for the RB Leipzig is 0.171 and for the Bochum is -0.474.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the RB Leipzig is -0.202 and for the Bochum is -0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
RB Leipzig 12% 9% 43% 36%
Bochum 25% 61% 11% 3%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 2.88 goals and Bochum to score 0.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.37 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 2.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 2.04 goals and Bochum to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.95 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 33.33 0-1 8
1 10.53 2-3 1.84
2 5.68 4+ 3.01
3 2.72 Ov 1.5 1.14
4 3.68 Un 1.5 8
5 20 Ov 2.5 1.43
6+ 100 Un 2.5 3.32
Gg 1.52 Ov 3.5 3.01
NoG 2.94 Un 3.5 1.5


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 5.43 4.17 1.74
2-3 goals 1.18 9.7 21.72
4+ goals 1.27 6.04 22.13
Ov 1.5 1.21 7.88 21.88
Un 1.5 5.43 4.17 1.74
Ov 2.5 1.13 12.71 24.96
Un 2.5 2.3 3.5 3.58
Ov 3.5 1.27 6.04 22.13
Un 3.5 1.38 7.77 6.89
Goal-Goal 1.26 5.95 26.4
No Goal 1.52 11.33 3.91
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.15 10.98 24.16
NG+Un 2.5 1.87 11.33 2.92



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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