Rennes Vs Paris SG

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Rennes and Paris SG for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 5.32 4.46 1.59 1.6 2.39
Estim 2.48 3.6 3.14 2.48 1.68
Value % 21.53 5.36 -31.05 -22.18 17.68



Basic Data and latest results


Rennes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 4 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Home 2 1 1 58 3 2 1 3




Rennes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Bordeaux A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Clermont H 6 0 W O Ng
19 Sep Marseille A 0 2 L U Ng
12 Sep Reims H 0 2 L U Ng
29 Aug Angers A 0 2 L U Ng
22 Aug Nantes H 1 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Brest A 1 1 D U Gg
08 Aug Lens H 1 1 D U Gg



Paris SG basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 6 0 0 100 6 3 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1
At Away 4 0 0 100 4 3 3 1




Paris SG latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Montpellier H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Metz A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Lyon H 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Clermont H 4 0 W O Ng
29 Aug Reims A 2 0 W U Ng
20 Aug Brest A 4 2 W O Gg
14 Aug Strasbourg H 4 2 W O Gg
07 Aug Troyes A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Rennes is -0.163 and for the Paris SG is 1.
  • The home dynamic for the Rennes is 0.231 and the dynamic as a guest for the Paris SG is 1.
  • The offensive ability for the Rennes is -0.347 and for the Paris SG is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Rennes is -0.253 and for the Paris SG is 0.176.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Rennes 29% 34% 28% 10%
Paris SG 36% 36% 13% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rennes to score 0.86 goals and Paris SG to score 2.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 1.26 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.17 goals and Paris SG to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.35 0-1 2.99
1 4.39 2-3 2.08
2 3.85 4+ 5.41
3 4.55 Ov 1.5 1.5
4 8.4 Un 1.5 2.99
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.47
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.68
Gg 2.22 Ov 3.5 5.41
NoG 1.82 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.75 3.13 3.16
2-3 goals 2.05 3.93 3.87
4+ goals 3.85 3.7 2.13
Ov 1.5 2.36 3.87 3.15
Un 1.5 2.75 3.13 3.16
Ov 2.5 2.23 8.1 2.34
Un 2.5 2.68 2.6 4.13
Ov 3.5 3.85 3.7 2.13
Un 3.5 2.29 3.56 3.54
Goal-Goal 3.06 2.62 3.44
No Goal 2.14 5.14 2.96
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.23 6.56 2.5
NG+Un 2.5 2.13 5.14 3.28



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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