Roma Vs Empoli

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Roma and Empoli for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.43 5.26 6.67 1.4 2.99
Estim 2.63 3.7 2.86 1.97 2.03
Value % -31.91 8.02 19.97 -20.67 15.82



Basic Data and latest results


Roma basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 6 4 5 1
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1




Roma latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Lazio A 2 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Udinese H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Verona A 2 3 L O Gg
12 Sep Sassuolo H 2 1 W O Gg
29 Aug Salernitana A 4 0 W O Ng
22 Aug Fiorentina H 3 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Empoli basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Away 2 0 0 100 2 0 0 2




Empoli latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Bologna H 4 2 W O Gg
22 Sep Cagliari A 2 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Sampdoria H 0 3 L O Ng
11 Sep Venezia H 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Juventus A 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Lazio H 1 3 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Roma is 0.259 and for the Empoli is 0.059.
  • The home dynamic for the Roma is 0.922 and the dynamic as a guest for the Empoli is 0.92.
  • The offensive ability for the Roma is 1 and for the Empoli is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Roma is -0.227 and for the Empoli is -0.227.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Roma 31% 19% 37% 13%
Empoli 33% 24% 28% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Roma to score 2.62 goals and Empoli to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.42 goals in the game and the home team Roma to win by 1.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Roma to score 1.31 goals and Empoli to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.8 0-1 4.18
1 7.3 2-3 2.06
2 3.95 4+ 3.62
3 4.31 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 6.13 Un 1.5 4.18
5 10.75 Ov 2.5 1.97
6+ 50 Un 2.5 2.03
Gg 2.16 Ov 3.5 3.62
NoG 1.87 Un 3.5 1.38


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.85 2.34 3.19
2-3 goals 1.93 10.54 2.58
4+ goals 4.12 2.24 3.21
Ov 1.5 2.39 4.5 2.78
Un 1.5 3.85 2.34 3.19
Ov 2.5 2.57 4.13 2.72
Un 2.5 2.7 3.32 3.04
Ov 3.5 4.12 2.24 3.21
Un 3.5 2.31 4.89 2.75
Goal-Goal 2.97 2.75 3.34
No Goal 2.39 5.25 2.55
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.68 3.4 3.01
NG+Un 2.5 2.45 5.25 2.75



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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