Sampdoria Vs Udinese

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Udinese for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.19 3.41 3.47 1.9 1.97
Estim 2.53 3.68 3.01 1.88 2.13
Value % -6.14 -2.15 4.4 0.56 -3.81



Basic Data and latest results


Sampdoria basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 4 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 3 0
At Home 0 1 2 11 1 3 2 1




Sampdoria latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Juventus A 2 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Napoli H 0 4 L O Ng
19 Sep Empoli A 3 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Inter H 2 2 D O Gg
29 Aug Sassuolo A 0 0 D U Ng
23 Aug Milan H 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Udinese basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 4 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 1 2
At Away 1 0 1 50 1 1 0 2




Udinese latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Fiorentina H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Sep Roma A 0 1 L U Ng
20 Sep Napoli H 0 4 L O Ng
12 Sep Spezia A 1 0 W U Ng
27 Aug Venezia H 3 0 W O Ng
22 Aug Juventus H 2 2 D O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sampdoria is -0.348 and for the Udinese is -0.244.
  • The home dynamic for the Sampdoria is -0.647 and the dynamic as a guest for the Udinese is -0.04.
  • The offensive ability for the Sampdoria is -0.316 and for the Udinese is -0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sampdoria is -0.253 and for the Udinese is -0.288.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sampdoria 23% 34% 24% 20%
Udinese 23% 45% 12% 20%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.5 goals and Udinese to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Sampdoria to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.4 goals and Udinese to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 18.87 0-1 4.26
1 5.49 2-3 2.11
2 4.26 4+ 3.44
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 5.49 Un 1.5 4.26
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 1.89
6+ 26.32 Un 2.5 2.13
Gg 1.69 Ov 3.5 3.44
NoG 2.44 Un 3.5 1.41


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.01 4.43 2.26
2-3 goals 2.29 3.14 4.09
4+ goals 2.62 4.34 2.58
Ov 1.5 2.41 3.51 3.34
Un 1.5 3.01 4.43 2.26
Ov 2.5 2.02 7.91 2.65
Un 2.5 3.53 2.3 3.53
Ov 3.5 2.62 4.34 2.58
Un 3.5 2.49 3.48 3.22
Goal-Goal 2.71 2.71 3.81
No Goal 2.3 7.72 2.3
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.02 6.57 2.84
NG+Un 2.5 2.4 7.72 2.4



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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