Sassuolo Vs Inter

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Inter for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.45 4.21 1.74 1.5 2.62
Estim 2.91 3.86 2.52 1.94 2.07
Value % 11.89 2.15 -17.79 -15.12 10.14



Basic Data and latest results


Sassuolo basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2
At Home 1 1 1 44 1 1 0 3




Sassuolo latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Salernitana H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Sep Atalanta A 1 2 L O Gg
17 Sep Torino H 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Roma A 1 2 L O Gg
29 Aug Sampdoria H 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Verona A 3 2 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Inter basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 5 6 0
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 3 0
At Away 2 1 0 78 3 3 3 0




Inter latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Atalanta H 2 2 D O Gg
21 Sep Fiorentina A 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Bologna H 6 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Sampdoria A 2 2 D O Gg
27 Aug Verona A 3 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Genoa H 4 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sassuolo is -0.185 and for the Inter is 0.644.
  • The home dynamic for the Sassuolo is 0.004 and the dynamic as a guest for the Inter is 0.64.
  • The offensive ability for the Sassuolo is 0.098 and for the Inter is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sassuolo is -0.202 and for the Inter is -0.682.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sassuolo 31% 28% 28% 13%
Inter 28% 30% 23% 20%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.05 goals and Inter to score 2.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.17 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 1.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.24 goals and Inter to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.9 0-1 3.95
1 5.92 2-3 2.1
2 4.31 4+ 3.7
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.29 Un 1.5 3.95
5 11.76 Ov 2.5 1.94
6+ 38.46 Un 2.5 2.06
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 3.7
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.37


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.24 3.01 2.78
2-3 goals 2.42 5.68 2.43
4+ goals 3.8 3 2.48
Ov 1.5 2.79 4.29 2.45
Un 1.5 3.24 3.01 2.78
Ov 2.5 2.7 5.72 2.2
Un 2.5 3.13 2.89 2.99
Ov 3.5 3.8 3 2.48
Un 3.5 2.65 4.35 2.54
Goal-Goal 3.26 2.89 2.89
No Goal 2.59 5.93 2.24
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.71 4.64 2.4
NG+Un 2.5 2.59 5.93 2.48



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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