Solihull Vs Southend

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Solihull and Southend for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.96 3.62 3.71 1.92 1.93
Estim 2.28 3.82 3.34 2 2
Value % -7.16 -1.45 2.99 -2.08 -1.81



Basic Data and latest results


Solihull basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 5 5 1
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Home 2 2 1 53 5 5 4 1




Solihull latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Dag and Red A 1 5 L O Gg
21 Sep Dover Athletic A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Boreham Wood H 3 1 W O Gg
14 Sep Torquay H 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Aldershot A 2 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Weymouth H 3 4 L O Gg
28 Aug Barnet H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Wrexham H 2 2 D O Gg



Southend basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 5 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 2 33 2 2 1 3




Southend latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
18 Sep Torquay A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Aldershot H 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Halifax A 1 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Wrexham H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug Wealdstone A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Stockport H 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug King’s Lynn A 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Solihull is 0.148 and for the Southend is -0.689.
  • The home dynamic for the Solihull is 0.231 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southend is -0.32.
  • The offensive ability for the Solihull is 0.482 and for the Southend is -0.368.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Solihull is -0.571 and for the Southend is -0.657.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Solihull 25% 30% 25% 20%
Southend 31% 36% 22% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.56 goals and Southend to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.4 goals and Southend to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.99 0-1 3.83
1 5.43 2-3 2.06
2 4.17 4+ 3.94
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.25 Un 1.5 3.83
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.94
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.75 3.39 2.93
2-3 goals 2.13 4.45 3.28
4+ goals 2.21 3.34 4.03
Ov 1.5 2.15 3.99 3.5
Un 1.5 2.75 3.39 2.93
Ov 2.5 1.88 6.57 3.18
Un 2.5 2.91 2.69 3.5
Ov 3.5 2.21 3.34 4.03
Un 3.5 2.31 4.01 3.15
Goal-Goal 2.55 2.79 4.01
No Goal 2.06 6.27 2.82
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.01 5.37 3.16
NG+Un 2.5 2.28 6.27 2.74



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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