Sp Braga Vs Boavista

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sp Braga and Boavista for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.46 4.26 6.47 1.76 2.09
Estim 1.75 4.08 5.43 2.13 1.88
Value % -11.35 1.04 2.96 -9.87 5.34



Basic Data and latest results


Sp Braga basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2
At Home 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1




Sp Braga latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Santa Clara A 1 1 D U Gg
20 Sep Tondela H 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Pacos Ferreira A 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Guimaraes H 0 0 D U Ng
20 Aug Moreirense A 3 2 W O Gg
14 Aug Sp Lisbon H 1 2 L O Gg
07 Aug Maritimo A 2 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Boavista basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 6 4 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Away 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1




Boavista latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Estoril H 1 1 D U Gg
20 Sep Benfica A 1 3 L O Gg
12 Sep Portimonense H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Vizela A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Aug Santa Clara H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Aug Pacos Ferreira H 3 0 W O Ng
09 Aug Gil Vicente A 0 3 L O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sp Braga is 0.2 and for the Boavista is 0.096.
  • The home dynamic for the Sp Braga is 0.035 and the dynamic as a guest for the Boavista is -0.64.
  • The offensive ability for the Sp Braga is 0.067 and for the Boavista is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Braga is -0.227 and for the Boavista is -0.339.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sp Braga 18% 31% 26% 24%
Boavista 43% 38% 13% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 2.03 goals and Boavista to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 1.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.57 goals and Boavista to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.58
1 4.98 2-3 1.97
2 3.97 4+ 4.69
3 3.91 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.8 Un 1.5 3.58
5 20.41 Ov 2.5 2.13
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.88
Gg 2.13 Ov 3.5 4.69
NoG 1.88 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.11 3.58 4.04
2-3 goals 1.61 4.34 6.68
4+ goals 1.73 4.26 5.33
Ov 1.5 1.65 4.32 6.22
Un 1.5 2.11 3.58 4.04
Ov 2.5 1.44 9.38 5.04
Un 2.5 2.18 2.72 5.77
Ov 3.5 1.73 4.26 5.33
Un 3.5 1.76 4.04 5.43
Goal-Goal 2.11 2.81 5.86
No Goal 1.53 6.81 5.06
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.59 7.04 4.4
NG+Un 2.5 1.7 6.81 4.5



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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