Spal Vs Parma

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Spal and Parma for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.33 3.2 3.11 1.99 1.84
Estim 2.2 3.89 3.46 1.98 2.02
Value % 2.54 -5.54 -3.25 0.25 -4.84



Basic Data and latest results


Spal basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Home 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1




Spal latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Ternana A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Vicenza H 3 2 W O Gg
18 Sep Reggina A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Monza H 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Pordenone H 5 0 W O Ng
22 Aug Pisa A 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Parma basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 4 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 3 2 3 0




Parma latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Pisa H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Ternana A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Cremonese H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Pordenone A 4 0 W O Ng
29 Aug Benevento H 1 0 W U Ng
20 Aug Frosinone A 2 2 D O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Spal is -0.17 and for the Parma is -0.052.
  • The home dynamic for the Spal is 0.608 and the dynamic as a guest for the Parma is -0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Spal is 0.067 and for the Parma is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Spal is -0.657 and for the Parma is -0.288.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Spal 24% 25% 37% 15%
Parma 34% 32% 21% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.36 goals and Parma to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.42 goals and Parma to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 4.15
1 6.21 2-3 1.98
2 3.92 4+ 3.92
3 3.98 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 6.37 Un 1.5 4.15
5 12.66 Ov 2.5 1.98
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 2.02
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 3.92
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.84 3.01 3.17
2-3 goals 1.73 6.32 3.8
4+ goals 3.27 2.66 3.15
Ov 1.5 2.05 4.32 3.56
Un 1.5 2.84 3.01 3.17
Ov 2.5 2.06 5.27 3.09
Un 2.5 2.36 3.1 3.94
Ov 3.5 3.27 2.66 3.15
Un 3.5 1.98 4.67 3.57
Goal-Goal 2.58 2.87 3.8
No Goal 1.91 6.21 3.17
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.17 4.43 3.2
NG+Un 2.5 1.98 6.21 3.3



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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