St Etienne Vs Lyon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between St Etienne and Lyon for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.15 3.93 1.81 1.62 2.39
Estim 2.53 3.75 2.97 2.28 1.78
Value % 15.43 1.22 -21.58 -17.87 14.34



Basic Data and latest results


St Etienne basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 4 6 4 2
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 3 0
At Home 0 2 2 17 3 4 2 2




St Etienne latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Nice H 0 3 L O Ng
22 Sep Monaco A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Bordeaux H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Montpellier A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Marseille A 1 3 L O Gg
21 Aug Lille H 1 1 D U Gg
15 Aug Lens A 2 2 D O Gg
08 Aug Lorient H 1 1 D U Gg



Lyon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 0 2 33 2 2 2 1




Lyon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Lorient H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Troyes H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Paris SG A 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Strasbourg H 3 1 W O Gg
27 Aug Nantes A 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Clermont H 3 3 D O Gg
15 Aug Angers A 0 3 L O Ng
07 Aug Brest H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the St Etienne is -0.867 and for the Lyon is 0.319.
  • The home dynamic for the St Etienne is -0.553 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lyon is -0.32.
  • The offensive ability for the St Etienne is -0.005 and for the Lyon is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the St Etienne is -1 and for the Lyon is -0.657.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
St Etienne 30% 29% 32% 9%
Lyon 34% 34% 16% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.04 goals and Lyon to score 1.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and the guest team Lyon to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.2 goals and Lyon to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.62 0-1 3.26
1 4.93 2-3 2.04
2 3.91 4+ 4.9
3 4.27 Ov 1.5 1.44
4 7.94 Un 1.5 3.26
5 15.62 Ov 2.5 2.28
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.78
Gg 2.18 Ov 3.5 4.9
NoG 1.84 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.1 2.95 2.95
2-3 goals 1.95 4.95 3.5
4+ goals 4.34 3.19 2.19
Ov 1.5 2.33 4.26 2.98
Un 1.5 3.1 2.95 2.95
Ov 2.5 2.32 6.84 2.37
Un 2.5 2.71 2.77 3.7
Ov 3.5 4.34 3.19 2.19
Un 3.5 2.28 3.93 3.27
Goal-Goal 2.92 2.81 3.32
No Goal 2.26 5.22 2.73
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.29 5.61 2.6
NG+Un 2.5 2.23 5.22 3.05



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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