Stoke Vs West Brom

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Stoke and West Brom for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.58 3.32 2.14 2.09 1.78
Estim 2.93 3.72 2.56 2.14 1.88
Value % 6.2 -3.24 -7.67 -1.12 -2.99



Basic Data and latest results


Stoke basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Home 4 1 0 87 5 3 2 3




Stoke latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Preston A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Hull H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Derby A 1 2 L O Gg
15 Sep Barnsley H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Huddersfield H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Fulham A 0 3 L O Ng
21 Aug Nott’m Forest H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Swansea A 3 1 W O Gg



West Brom basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 5 3 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
At Away 3 2 0 73 5 3 3 2




West Brom latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Cardiff A 4 0 W O Ng
24 Sep QPR H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Preston A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Sep Derby H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Millwall H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Peterboro A 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Blackburn A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Aug Sheffield United H 4 0 W O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Stoke is 0.022 and for the West Brom is 0.519.
  • The home dynamic for the Stoke is 0.78 and the dynamic as a guest for the West Brom is 0.64.
  • The offensive ability for the Stoke is 0.617 and for the West Brom is 0.547.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Stoke is -0.571 and for the West Brom is 0.142.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Stoke 32% 32% 21% 14%
West Brom 29% 32% 24% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 0.98 goals and West Brom to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the guest team West Brom to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.17 goals and West Brom to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.75 0-1 3.46
1 5.1 2-3 2.09
2 4.12 4+ 4.33
3 4.26 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.46
5 15.15 Ov 2.5 2.15
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 1.88
Gg 2.08 Ov 3.5 4.33
NoG 1.93 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.11 3.11 2.81
2-3 goals 2.85 4.6 2.32
4+ goals 2.89 3.21 2.92
Ov 1.5 2.86 4.03 2.49
Un 1.5 3.11 3.11 2.81
Ov 2.5 2.48 6.47 2.26
Un 2.5 3.48 2.7 2.92
Ov 3.5 2.89 3.21 2.92
Un 3.5 2.94 3.89 2.48
Goal-Goal 3.27 2.73 3.04
No Goal 2.66 5.56 2.25
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.56 5.24 2.39
NG+Un 2.5 2.8 5.56 2.35



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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