In this article I will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Stuttgart basic data
Stuttgart latest results
|12 Sep||Ein Frankfurt||A||1||1||D||U||Gg|
|20 Aug||RB Leipzig||A||0||4||L||O||Ng|
|14 Aug||Greuther Furth||H||5||1||W||O||Gg|
Hoffenheim basic data
Hoffenheim latest results
|22 Aug||Union Berlin||H||2||2||D||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Stuttgart (3-5-1-1)||Hoffenheim (4-4-2)|
|Florian M?ller||GK||Oliver Baumann||GK|
|Konstantinos Mavropanos||DC||David Raum||DL|
|Waldemar Anton||DC||Kevin Vogt||DC|
|Marc Oliver Kempf||DC||Chris Richards||DC|
|Borna Sosa||DML||Pavel Kader?bek||DR|
|Tanguy Coulibaly||MC||Robert Skov||ML|
|Wataru Endo||MC||Sebastian Rudy||MC|
|Orel Mangala||MC||Florian Grillitsch||MC|
|Roberto Massimo||DMR||Christoph Baumgartner||MR|
|Chris F?hrich||AMC||Andrej Kramaric||FW|
|Omar Marmoush||FW||Ihlas Bebou||FW|
Stuttgart news and injuries
Naouirou Ahamada is over a calf injury, while Momo Ciss? has a foot injury and Lilian Egloff has had a foot op. Waldemar Anton will return in defence after serving a suspension. Silas Wamangituka Fundu is still out with a knee injury, but has at least served his suspension for playing under a false identity. Top scorer Sasa Kalajdzic returned from COVID-19, but immediately succumbed to a shoulder injury which could keep him out of the action until the winter break.
Nikolas Nartey and Tanguy Coulibaly are both fit after COVID-19. Mohamed Sankoh faces six months out with a serious knee injury, but new signing Chris Furich could make his first start.
Omar Marmoush scored on debut after arriving on loan from leaders Wolfsburg, while Wahid Faghir, another young attacker, has signed from Vejle BK in Denmark and could make the squad.
|Silas Wamangituka Fundu||Out|
Hoffenheim news and injuries
Sebastian Rudy and Munas Dabbur are both fit, while Andrej Kramaric broke his scoring duck last weekend after almost 500 minutes without a goal. Ermin Bicakcic is still on his way back from ACL trouble, while Benjamin H?bner is on the mend from long-standing ankle problems. H?vard Nordtveit has a thigh problem.
Diadie Samassekou and Pavel Kaderabek are both fit, while Ihlas Bebou and Kevin Akpoguma will also feature in the squad after their experience with COVID-19. . US international Chris Richards has arrived for another loan spell from champions Bayern to bolster their defence.
Betting information and prediction
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Stuttgart’s last 7 home games (Bundesliga).
- Stuttgart have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Hoffenheim in all competitions.
- Hoffenheim have failed to win 10 of their last 11 away matches (Bundesliga).
- Stuttgart have failed to win their last 5 matches (Bundesliga).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Stuttgart is -0.356 and for the Hoffenheim is 0.
- The home dynamic for the Stuttgart is -0.388 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hoffenheim is -0.024.
- The offensive ability for the Stuttgart is 0.036 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.021.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Stuttgart is -0.545 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.253.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.56 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.27 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|