Torino Vs Juventus

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Torino and Juventus for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.28 3.49 1.93 1.94 1.93
Estim 2.54 3.25 3.36 2.87 1.53
Value % 16.01 2.12 -22.05 -16.7 13.55



Basic Data and latest results


Torino basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 4 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 0 3
At Home 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1




Torino latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Venezia A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Sep Lazio H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Sep Sassuolo A 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Salernitana H 4 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Fiorentina A 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Atalanta H 1 2 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Juventus basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 6 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 3 3 3 0




Juventus latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Sampdoria H 3 2 W O Gg
22 Sep Spezia A 3 2 W O Gg
19 Sep Milan H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Napoli A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Empoli H 0 1 L U Ng
22 Aug Udinese A 2 2 D O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Torino is 0.052 and for the Juventus is 0.074.
  • The home dynamic for the Torino is 0.004 and the dynamic as a guest for the Juventus is 0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Torino is 1 and for the Juventus is 0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Torino is -0.227 and for the Juventus is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Torino 37% 29% 25% 8%
Juventus 63% -11% 40% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 0.92 goals and Juventus to score 1.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the guest team Juventus to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.05 goals and Juventus to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 4.27 0-1 2.64
1 6.9 2-3 2.25
2 3.68 4+ 5.68
3 5.78 Ov 1.5 1.61
4 8.7 Un 1.5 2.64
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2.87
6+ 142.86 Un 2.5 1.54
Gg 4.31 Ov 3.5 5.68
NoG 1.3 Un 3.5 1.21


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.04 1.62 -9.24
2-3 goals 2.42 -13.48 1.51
4+ goals 7.33 1.64 3.91
Ov 1.5 2.99 8.39 1.83
Un 1.5 2.04 1.62 -9.24
Ov 2.5 7.12 3.26 1.81
Un 2.5 1.89 3.24 6.2
Ov 3.5 7.33 1.64 3.91
Un 3.5 2.23 4.1 3.26
Goal-Goal -58 3.14 1.43
No Goal 1.93 3.28 5.65
G-G+Ov 2.5 -66.25 2.48 1.64
NG+Un 2.5 1.98 3.28 6.51



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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