Torquay Vs Wealdstone

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Torquay and Wealdstone for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.76 3.7 4.17 1.8 1.99
Estim 2.82 3.66 2.69 2.03 1.97
Value % -21.36 0.3 13.19 -6.29 0.51



Basic Data and latest results


Torquay basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 5 1
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Home 1 0 3 25 3 3 3 1




Torquay latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Chesterfield A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Southend H 1 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Solihull A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Grimsby H 1 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Maidenhead A 4 3 W O Gg
30 Aug Woking H 0 4 L O Ng
28 Aug Notts County A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Altrincham H 1 3 L O Gg



Wealdstone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 3 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 2 33 3 3 2 2




Wealdstone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep King’s Lynn A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Aldershot H 2 2 D O Gg
14 Sep Notts County A 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Altrincham H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Dag and Red A 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug Southend H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Chesterfield A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Woking H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Torquay is -0.133 and for the Wealdstone is 0.185.
  • The home dynamic for the Torquay is -0.451 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wealdstone is -0.2.
  • The offensive ability for the Torquay is 0.617 and for the Wealdstone is 0.611.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Torquay is -0.571 and for the Wealdstone is 0.142.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Torquay 26% 38% 22% 14%
Wealdstone 26% 34% 24% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.72 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.25 goals and Wealdstone to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.49 0-1 3.89
1 5.32 2-3 2.02
2 4 4+ 4
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.25 Un 1.5 3.89
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.97
Gg 1.83 Ov 3.5 4
NoG 2.2 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.57 3.72 2.92
2-3 goals 2.86 3.83 2.57
4+ goals 3.05 3.29 2.72
Ov 1.5 2.92 3.63 2.62
Un 1.5 2.57 3.72 2.92
Ov 2.5 2.52 6.5 2.23
Un 2.5 3.19 2.56 3.38
Ov 3.5 3.05 3.29 2.72
Un 3.5 2.75 3.79 2.68
Goal-Goal 3.43 2.66 3
No Goal 2.32 6.59 2.39
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.62 5.49 2.29
NG+Un 2.5 2.38 6.59 2.52



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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