Tottenham Vs Aston Villa

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Tottenham and Aston Villa for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.15 3.52 3.47 1.9 1.97
Estim 2.14 4.18 3.41 1.81 2.23
Value % 0.22 -4.49 0.51 2.62 -5.92



Basic Data and latest results


Tottenham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 3 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 3 0
At Home 2 0 1 67 2 1 1 2




Tottenham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Arsenal A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Chelsea H 0 3 L O Ng
11 Sep Crystal Palace A 0 3 L O Ng
29 Aug Watford H 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Wolves A 1 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Man City H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Aston Villa basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 2 1
At Away 1 0 2 33 2 2 2 1




Aston Villa latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Man United A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Everton H 3 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Chelsea A 0 3 L O Ng
28 Aug Brentford H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Newcastle H 2 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Watford A 2 3 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Tottenham is -0.111 and for the Aston Villa is 0.222.
  • The home dynamic for the Tottenham is 0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aston Villa is -0.264.
  • The offensive ability for the Tottenham is -0.005 and for the Aston Villa is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Tottenham is 0.03 and for the Aston Villa is 0.227.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Tottenham 26% 11% 52% 11%
Aston Villa 30% 35% 21% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.51 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.49 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 5
1 8.2 2-3 1.91
2 4.02 4+ 3.6
3 3.64 Ov 1.5 1.25
4 6.13 Un 1.5 5
5 10.1 Ov 2.5 1.81
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 2.23
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.6
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.38


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 6.25 2.56 2.22
2-3 goals 1.4 14.16 4.68
4+ goals 4.48 2.22 3.05
Ov 1.5 1.84 4.95 3.95
Un 1.5 6.25 2.56 2.22
Ov 2.5 1.99 4.42 3.69
Un 2.5 2.35 3.9 3.14
Ov 3.5 4.48 2.22 3.05
Un 3.5 1.78 6.3 3.58
Goal-Goal 2.13 3.2 4.59
No Goal 2.15 6.19 2.68
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.98 3.86 4.27
NG+Un 2.5 2.16 6.19 2.88



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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