Villarreal Vs Betis

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Villarreal and Betis for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2 3.73 3.77 1.86 2.01
Estim 2.05 3.79 4.03 2 2
Value % -1.22 -0.42 -1.71 -3.76 0.25



Basic Data and latest results


Villarreal basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 5 0 44 2 2 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 1 1 1 2
At Home 1 1 0 67 1 1 1 1




Villarreal latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Real Madrid A 0 0 D U Ng
22 Sep Elche H 4 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Mallorca A 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Ath Madrid A 2 2 D O Gg
21 Aug Espanol A 0 0 D U Ng
16 Aug Granada H 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Betis basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 5 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1




Betis latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Getafe H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Osasuna A 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Espanol H 2 2 D O Gg
13 Sep Granada A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Real Madrid H 0 1 L U Ng
20 Aug Cadiz H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Mallorca A 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Villarreal is 0.185 and for the Betis is 0.393.
  • The home dynamic for the Villarreal is 0.451 and the dynamic as a guest for the Betis is 0.664.
  • The offensive ability for the Villarreal is -0.834 and for the Betis is 0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Villarreal is 0.519 and for the Betis is -0.545.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Villarreal 20% 34% 22% 24%
Betis 32% 40% 18% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.61 goals and Betis to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Villarreal to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.5 goals and Betis to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Villarreal to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.38 0-1 3.89
1 5.21 2-3 2.04
2 4.12 4+ 3.92
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 5.92 Un 1.5 3.89
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.85 Ov 3.5 3.92
NoG 2.17 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.32 3.95 3.17
2-3 goals 2.07 3.57 4.22
4+ goals 1.81 4.11 4.9
Ov 1.5 1.97 3.74 4.43
Un 1.5 2.32 3.95 3.17
Ov 2.5 1.63 8.08 3.8
Un 2.5 2.76 2.48 4.27
Ov 3.5 1.81 4.11 4.9
Un 3.5 2.15 3.69 3.79
Goal-Goal 2.37 2.71 4.78
No Goal 1.77 7.09 3.39
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.77 6.5 3.57
NG+Un 2.5 2.01 7.09 3.1



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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