Vitesse Vs Feyenoord

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Vitesse and Feyenoord for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.37 3.76 1.99 1.63 2.29
Estim 3.45 3.77 2.25 1.54 2.84
Value % -0.69 -0.07 -5.81 3.59 -8.46



Basic Data and latest results


Vitesse basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Home 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1




Vitesse latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep For Sittard H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Groningen A 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Twente H 1 4 L O Gg
12 Sep Waalwijk A 2 1 W O Gg
29 Aug Ajax A 0 5 L O Ng
22 Aug Willem II H 0 3 L O Ng
15 Aug Zwolle A 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Feyenoord basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 0 1 83 6 3 5 1
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 2 3 0
At Away 2 0 1 67 3 1 3 0




Feyenoord latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Nijmegen H 5 3 W O Gg
22 Sep Heerenveen H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep PSV Eindhoven A 4 0 W O Ng
29 Aug Utrecht A 1 3 L O Gg
22 Aug Go Ahead Eagles H 2 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Willem II A 4 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Vitesse is -0.111 and for the Feyenoord is 0.681.
  • The home dynamic for the Vitesse is -0.624 and the dynamic as a guest for the Feyenoord is 0.32.
  • The offensive ability for the Vitesse is 0.202 and for the Feyenoord is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Vitesse is -0.571 and for the Feyenoord is 0.056.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Vitesse 22% 36% 23% 20%
Feyenoord 11% 36% 27% 26%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.17 goals and Feyenoord to score 1.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and the guest team Feyenoord to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.41 goals and Feyenoord to score 1.69 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 43.48 0-1 7.14
1 8.55 2-3 2.14
2 4.72 4+ 2.55
3 3.91 Ov 1.5 1.16
4 4.42 Un 1.5 7.14
5 8.85 Ov 2.5 1.54
6+ 18.87 Un 2.5 2.84
Gg 1.43 Ov 3.5 2.55
NoG 3.31 Un 3.5 1.64


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.68 6.09 1.77
2-3 goals 3.69 3.63 2.21
4+ goals 3.14 3.47 2.55
Ov 1.5 3.41 3.55 2.35
Un 1.5 3.68 6.09 1.77
Ov 2.5 2.84 5.73 2.11
Un 2.5 5.68 2.32 2.55
Ov 3.5 3.14 3.47 2.55
Un 3.5 3.68 4 2.09
Goal-Goal 3.37 2.88 2.8
No Goal 3.64 13.13 1.54
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.75 5.04 2.29
NG+Un 2.5 3.6 13.13 1.62



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *