Vizela Vs Santa Clara

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Vizela and Santa Clara for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.48 3.14 2.89 2.29 1.64
Estim 1.59 4.48 6.76 2.07 1.93
Value % 22.57 -9.53 -19.81 4.64 -9.16



Basic Data and latest results


Vizela basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 4 5 3 3
Last 3 0 3 0 33 2 2 1 2
At Home 1 2 0 56 3 3 1 2




Vizela latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Portimonense A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep Pacos Ferreira H 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Gil Vicente A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Boavista H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Aug Guimaraes A 0 4 L O Ng
14 Aug Tondela H 2 1 W O Gg
06 Aug Sp Lisbon A 0 3 L O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Santa Clara basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1




Santa Clara latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Sp Braga H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Sep Portimonense A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Benfica H 0 5 L O Ng
29 Aug Gil Vicente H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Aug Boavista A 0 2 L U Ng
15 Aug Moreirense H 2 2 D O Gg
08 Aug Tondela A 0 3 L O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Vizela is -0.015 and for the Santa Clara is -0.348.
  • The home dynamic for the Vizela is 0.271 and the dynamic as a guest for the Santa Clara is -0.96.
  • The offensive ability for the Vizela is 0.036 and for the Santa Clara is 0.084.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Vizela is -0.545 and for the Santa Clara is -0.631.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Vizela 15% 30% 27% 28%
Santa Clara 48% 33% 14% 5%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vizela to score 1.17 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vizela to score 1.68 goals and Santa Clara to score 0.76 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Vizela to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 3.76
1 5.15 2-3 1.9
2 3.95 4+ 4.76
3 3.66 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.76
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.93
Gg 2.26 Ov 3.5 4.76
NoG 1.79 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.82 3.69 5.54
2-3 goals 1.49 5.31 7.21
4+ goals 1.62 3.96 7.78
Ov 1.5 1.52 4.84 7.36
Un 1.5 1.82 3.69 5.54
Ov 2.5 1.37 9.11 6.19
Un 2.5 1.87 3.04 7.41
Ov 3.5 1.62 3.96 7.78
Un 3.5 1.58 4.63 6.55
Goal-Goal 2.02 2.91 6.23
No Goal 1.36 7.78 7.27
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.57 6.47 4.83
NG+Un 2.5 1.51 7.78 6



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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