Waalwijk Vs Go Ahead Eagles

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Waalwijk and Go Ahead Eagles for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.3 3.58 2.96 1.71 2.2
Estim 1.62 4.67 5.99 1.83 2.2
Value % 18.25 -6.52 -17.09 -3.83 0



Basic Data and latest results


Waalwijk basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 5 6 5 1
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Home 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1




Waalwijk latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Heracles A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Willem II H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Utrecht A 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Vitesse H 1 2 L O Gg
27 Aug For Sittard A 2 2 D O Gg
21 Aug Heerenveen A 2 3 L O Gg
14 Aug AZ Alkmaar H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Go Ahead Eagles basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 2 1
At Away 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1




Go Ahead Eagles latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep AZ Alkmaar A 0 5 L O Ng
22 Sep PSV Eindhoven H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Zwolle H 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Cambuur A 2 5 L O Gg
28 Aug Sparta Rotterdam H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Feyenoord A 0 2 L U Ng
13 Aug Heerenveen H 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Waalwijk (4-2-3-1) Go Ahead Eagles (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Etienne Vaessen GK Warner Hahn GK
Alexander B?ttner DL Bas Kuipers DL
Ahmed Touba DC Justin Bakker DC
Melle Meulensteen DC Gerrit Nauber DC
Juri?n Gaari DR Mats Deijl DR
Vurnon Anita DMC Boyd Lucassen DMC
Ayman Azhil DMC Luuk Brouwers DMC
Sa?d Bakari AML Ogechika Heil AML
Richard van der Venne AMC Giannis-Foivos Botos AMC
Jens Odgaard AMR Martijn Berden AMR
Michiel Kramer FW Isac Lidberg FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Waalwijk news and injuries


Joel Pereira and David Min are the only players missing for Joseph Oosting when RKC Waalwijk welcome Go Ahead Eagles on Saturday.
.


Injured player Status
David Min Out
Joel Pereira Out



Go Ahead Eagles news and injuries



. Jacob Mulenga, Sam Crowther and Frank Ross are all unavailable this weekend. Kees van Wonderen should not make too many changes from the side that were humbled on the road at AZ.


Injured player Status
Sam Crowther Out
Frank Ross Out
Jacob Mulenga Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Go Ahead Eagles have lost their last 3 away matches (Eredivisie).
  • RKC Waalwijk have failed to win their last 6 matches (Eredivisie).
  • Go Ahead Eagles have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 away matches (Eredivisie).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Waalwijk is -0.681 and for the Go Ahead Eagles is -0.356.
  • The home dynamic for the Waalwijk is -0.388 and the dynamic as a guest for the Go Ahead Eagles is -0.96.
  • The offensive ability for the Waalwijk is 0.451 and for the Go Ahead Eagles is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Waalwijk is -1 and for the Go Ahead Eagles is -0.253.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Waalwijk 15% 25% 27% 33%
Go Ahead Eagles 47% 28% 17% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.53 goals and Go Ahead Eagles to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.77 goals and Go Ahead Eagles to score 0.87 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Waalwijk to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 4.33
1 6.29 2-3 1.98
2 4.48 4+ 3.8
3 3.53 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 6.33 Un 1.5 4.33
5 12.99 Ov 2.5 1.83
6+ 35.71 Un 2.5 2.2
Gg 2.23 Ov 3.5 3.8
NoG 1.81 Un 3.5 1.36


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.99 3.21 5.37
2-3 goals 1.41 7.33 6.41
4+ goals 1.81 3.55 5.98
Ov 1.5 1.53 5.38 6.25
Un 1.5 1.99 3.21 5.37
Ov 2.5 1.46 7.38 5.57
Un 2.5 1.85 3.22 6.68
Ov 3.5 1.81 3.55 5.98
Un 3.5 1.55 5.23 6.04
Goal-Goal 2.03 3.14 5.28
No Goal 1.38 7.65 6.8
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.72 5.14 4.47
NG+Un 2.5 1.57 7.65 5.66



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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