In this article I will analyze the game between West Ham and Brentford for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
West Ham basic data
West Ham latest results
|19 Sep||Man United||H||1||2||L||O||Gg|
|28 Aug||Crystal Palace||H||2||2||D||O||Gg|
Brentford basic data
Brentford latest results
|28 Aug||Aston Villa||A||1||1||D||U||Gg|
|21 Aug||Crystal Palace||A||0||0||D||U||Ng|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|West Ham (4-2-3-1)||Brentford (3-4-3)|
|Lukasz Fabianski||GK||David Raya||GK|
|Angelo Ogbonna||DC||Pontus Jansson||DC|
|Kurt Zouma||DC||Kristoffer Ajer||DC|
|Vladimir Coufal||DR||Rico Henry||DML|
|Declan Rice||DMC||Vitaly Janelt||MC|
|Tomas Soucek||DMC||Christian N?rgaard||MC|
|Sa?d Benrahma||AML||Sergi Can?s||DMR|
|Pablo Fornals||AMC||Yoane Wissa||FWL|
|Jarrod Bowen||AMR||Ivan Toney||FW|
|Michail Antonio||FW||Bryan Mbeumo||FWR|
West Ham news and injuries
Ben Johnson may be required. David Moyes will hope to have Vladimir Coufal available, particularly as his replacement, Ryan Fredericks is already sidelined. Michail Antonio came through an injury scare on Thursday and should be okay to lead the line against Brentford.
Should Coufal prove his fitness in time, West Ham may be unchanged from the side that started last weekend’s 2-1 win at Leeds.
Brentford news and injuries
Ethan Pinnock came off shortly after scoring against Liverpool last weekend and is a doubt for the trip across London on Sunday. Zanka is on standby to deputise.
. His introduction could trigger a change in shape for Brentford from a 3-5-2 to a 3-4-3, as Thomas Frank hasn’t yet nailed down his third and final central midfielder.
Yoane Wissa is pushing for his full Premier League debut after scoring four times in his last two appearances, including one off the bench against Liverpool.
|Mads Bech S?rensen||Out|
Betting information and prediction
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of West Ham’s last 8 games (Premier League).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Brentford’s last 3 away games (Premier League).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the West Ham is 0.296 and for the Brentford is 0.148.
- The home dynamic for the West Ham is -0.075 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brentford is 0.344.
- The offensive ability for the West Ham is 0.513 and for the Brentford is 0.084.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the West Ham is -0.597 and for the Brentford is 0.09.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.68 goals and Brentford to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.25 goals and Brentford to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|