West Ham Vs Brentford

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between West Ham and Brentford for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.83 3.62 4.73 1.93 1.92
Estim 2.83 3.77 2.62 1.99 2.01
Value % -19.31 -1.1 17.03 -1.56 -2.33



Basic Data and latest results


West Ham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 5 5 1
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Home 1 1 1 44 3 3 3 0




West Ham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Leeds A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Man United H 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Southampton A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Crystal Palace H 2 2 D O Gg
23 Aug Leicester H 4 1 W O Gg
15 Aug Newcastle A 4 2 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Brentford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 3 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 0 56 2 1 0 3




Brentford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Liverpool H 3 3 D O Gg
18 Sep Wolves A 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Brighton H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Aston Villa A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Crystal Palace A 0 0 D U Ng
13 Aug Arsenal H 2 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


West Ham (4-2-3-1) Brentford (3-4-3)
Player Pos Player Pos
Lukasz Fabianski GK David Raya GK
Aaron Cresswell DL Zanka DC
Angelo Ogbonna DC Pontus Jansson DC
Kurt Zouma DC Kristoffer Ajer DC
Vladimir Coufal DR Rico Henry DML
Declan Rice DMC Vitaly Janelt MC
Tomas Soucek DMC Christian N?rgaard MC
Sa?d Benrahma AML Sergi Can?s DMR
Pablo Fornals AMC Yoane Wissa FWL
Jarrod Bowen AMR Ivan Toney FW
Michail Antonio FW Bryan Mbeumo FWR




Basic Data

Predictions

West Ham news and injuries


Ben Johnson may be required. David Moyes will hope to have Vladimir Coufal available, particularly as his replacement, Ryan Fredericks is already sidelined. Michail Antonio came through an injury scare on Thursday and should be okay to lead the line against Brentford.
Should Coufal prove his fitness in time, West Ham may be unchanged from the side that started last weekend’s 2-1 win at Leeds.
.


Injured player Status
Ryan Fredericks Out
Vladimir Coufal Doubtful



Brentford news and injuries


Ethan Pinnock came off shortly after scoring against Liverpool last weekend and is a doubt for the trip across London on Sunday. Zanka is on standby to deputise.
. His introduction could trigger a change in shape for Brentford from a 3-5-2 to a 3-4-3, as Thomas Frank hasn’t yet nailed down his third and final central midfielder.
Yoane Wissa is pushing for his full Premier League debut after scoring four times in his last two appearances, including one off the bench against Liverpool.


Injured player Status
Josh Dasilva Out
Mads Bech S?rensen Out
Ethan Pinnock Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of West Ham’s last 8 games (Premier League).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Brentford’s last 3 away games (Premier League).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the West Ham is 0.296 and for the Brentford is 0.148.
  • The home dynamic for the West Ham is -0.075 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brentford is 0.344.
  • The offensive ability for the West Ham is 0.513 and for the Brentford is 0.084.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the West Ham is -0.597 and for the Brentford is 0.09.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
West Ham 29% 33% 22% 16%
Brentford 27% 33% 22% 17%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.68 goals and Brentford to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.25 goals and Brentford to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.77
1 5.38 2-3 2.11
2 4.29 4+ 3.82
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.25 Un 1.5 3.77
5 13.51 Ov 2.5 1.99
6+ 35.71 Un 2.5 2.01
Gg 1.94 Ov 3.5 3.82
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.36


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.01 3.35 2.7
2-3 goals 2.72 4.34 2.49
4+ goals 2.85 3.45 2.79
Ov 1.5 2.76 3.97 2.59
Un 1.5 3.01 3.35 2.7
Ov 2.5 2.41 6.61 2.3
Un 2.5 3.41 2.65 3.04
Ov 3.5 2.85 3.45 2.79
Un 3.5 2.82 3.93 2.56
Goal-Goal 3.15 2.79 3.09
No Goal 2.55 6.13 2.25
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.48 5.36 2.44
NG+Un 2.5 2.66 6.13 2.37



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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