Weymouth Vs Stockport

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Weymouth and Stockport for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.92 3.93 1.62 1.8 1.98
Estim 2.84 3.64 2.68 2 2
Value % 14.89 2.03 -24.41 -5.56 -0.51



Basic Data and latest results


Weymouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Home 1 2 1 42 3 4 1 3




Weymouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Barnet A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Dover Athletic H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Sep Dag and Red A 2 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Notts County H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Solihull A 4 3 W O Gg
30 Aug Maidenhead H 3 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Grimsby A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Boreham Wood H 0 2 L U Ng



Stockport basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 2 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Away 2 1 1 58 2 1 1 3




Stockport latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Wrexham H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Halifax A 0 3 L O Ng
14 Sep Maidenhead A 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Yeovil H 0 3 L O Ng
04 Sep Boreham Wood A 0 0 D U Ng
31 Aug Grimsby H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Southend A 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Dag and Red H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Weymouth is -0.089 and for the Stockport is 0.022.
  • The home dynamic for the Weymouth is -0.004 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stockport is 0.2.
  • The offensive ability for the Weymouth is 1 and for the Stockport is -0.789.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Weymouth is -1 and for the Stockport is 0.056.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Weymouth 24% 41% 22% 14%
Stockport 26% 34% 24% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Weymouth to score 0.81 goals and Stockport to score 1.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.25 goals and Stockport to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.39 0-1 4.03
1 5.35 2-3 2
2 3.95 4+ 3.97
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.13 Un 1.5 4.03
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 2.01
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.77 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 2.3 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.34 4.07 3.06
2-3 goals 2.99 3.59 2.59
4+ goals 3.19 3.41 2.55
Ov 1.5 3.05 3.53 2.57
Un 1.5 2.34 4.07 3.06
Ov 2.5 2.63 6.73 2.12
Un 2.5 3.07 2.5 3.63
Ov 3.5 3.19 3.41 2.55
Un 3.5 2.74 3.73 2.73
Goal-Goal 3.67 2.65 2.85
No Goal 2.19 7.11 2.48
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.77 5.76 2.15
NG+Un 2.5 2.22 7.11 2.62



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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