Wolfsburg Vs M’gladbach

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wolfsburg and M’gladbach for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.18 3.7 3.34 1.76 2.15
Estim 1.4 5.65 9.01 1.53 2.89
Value % 25.56 -9.33 -18.84 8.54 -11.91



Basic Data and latest results


Wolfsburg basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 3 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3




Wolfsburg latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Hoffenheim A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Ein Frankfurt H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Greuther Furth A 2 0 W U Ng
29 Aug RB Leipzig H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Hertha A 2 1 W O Gg
14 Aug Bochum H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



M’gladbach basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 5 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Away 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1




M’gladbach latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Dortmund H 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Augsburg A 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Bielefeld H 3 1 W O Gg
29 Aug Union Berlin A 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Leverkusen A 0 4 L O Ng
13 Aug Bayern Munich H 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Wolfsburg (4-1-4-1) M’gladbach (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Koen Casteels GK Yann Sommer GK
J?r?me Roussillon DL Joe Scally DL
Maxence Lacroix DC Nico Elvedi DC
John Brooks DC Matthias Ginter DC
Ridle Baku DR Louis Jordan Beyer DR
Maximilian Arnold DMC Florian Neuhaus DMC
Renato Steffen ML Christoph Kramer DMC
Josuha Guilavogui MC Hannes Wolf AML
Maximilian Philipp MC Patrick Herrmann AMC
Lukas Nmecha MR Lars Stindl AMR
Wout Weghorst FW Alassane Plea FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Wolfsburg news and injuries


Gian-Luca Waldschmidt is over a minor hip injury which prevented him from training. .
William, Bartosz Bialek and Xaver Schlager all have ACL injuries. Kevin Mbabu is over a knee problem, while Paulo Ot?vio is out with an ankle injury.


Injured player Status
Xaver Schlager Out
Paulo Ot?vio Out
William Out
Bartosz Bialek Out



M’gladbach news and injuries


Stefan Lainer remains on the sidelines, while Marcus Thuram has a muscle tear.
Manu Kon? is over his knee injury, while Denis Zakaria and Breel Embolo are both fit again.
. Ramy Bensebaini’s is nearing a return from a foot injury. Mamadou Doucoure has an Achilles injury, but Matthias Ginter is back after his bout of COVID-19.


Injured player Status
Stefan Lainer Out
Mamadou Doucour? Out
Marcus Thuram Out
Ramy Bensebaini Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Wolfsburg are undefeated in their last 17 home matches against Borussia M.Gladbach in all competitions.
  • Borussia M.Gladbach have lost 5 of their last 6 away matches (Bundesliga).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Wolfsburg’s last 3 home games (Bundesliga).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wolfsburg is 0.422 and for the M’gladbach is -0.126.
  • The home dynamic for the Wolfsburg is 0.584 and the dynamic as a guest for the M’gladbach is -0.96.
  • The offensive ability for the Wolfsburg is 1 and for the M’gladbach is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wolfsburg is 0.09 and for the M’gladbach is -0.545.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wolfsburg 10% 16% 40% 34%
M’gladbach 29% 55% 12% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolfsburg to score 1.59 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Wolfsburg to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolfsburg to score 1.98 goals and M’gladbach to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Wolfsburg to win by 1.08 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 33.33 0-1 7.58
1 9.8 2-3 1.79
2 4.65 4+ 3.22
3 2.92 Ov 1.5 1.15
4 4.12 Un 1.5 7.58
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 1.53
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 2.88
Gg 1.57 Ov 3.5 3.22
NoG 2.75 Un 3.5 1.45


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.93 4.4 2.32
2-3 goals 1.28 6.41 15.5
4+ goals 1.35 5.1 16.37
Ov 1.5 1.3 5.87 15.8
Un 1.5 2.93 4.4 2.32
Ov 2.5 1.19 10.72 15.57
Un 2.5 2.17 2.97 4.96
Ov 3.5 1.35 5.1 16.37
Un 3.5 1.44 5.9 7.42
Goal-Goal 1.41 4.31 16.79
No Goal 1.4 12.1 4.91
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.22 9.03 14.5
NG+Un 2.5 1.62 12.1 3.71



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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