In this article I will analyze the game between Wolves and Newcastle for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Wolves basic data
Wolves latest results
|29 Aug||Man United||H||0||1||L||U||Ng|
Newcastle basic data
Newcastle latest results
|11 Sep||Man United||A||1||4||L||O||Gg|
|21 Aug||Aston Villa||A||0||2||L||U||Ng|
|15 Aug||West Ham||H||2||4||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Wolves (3-4-3)||Newcastle (4-5-1)|
|Jos? S?||GK||Karl Darlow||GK|
|Romain Sa?ss||DC||Matt Ritchie||DL|
|Conor Coady||DC||Ciaran Clark||DC|
|Maximilian Kilman||DC||Federico Fern?ndez||DC|
|R?ben Neves||MC||Sean Longstaff||MC|
|N?lson Semedo||DMR||Isaac Hayden||MC|
|Ra?l Jim?nez||FW||Miguel Almir?n||MR|
|Adama Traor?||FWR||Allan Saint-Maximin||FW|
Wolves news and injuries
It would be a surprise if at least one of those didn’t come into the side here. Wolves still have five players on the treatment table this weekend. . Adama Traore, Trincao and Ruben Neves were surprisingly benched last time out but Wolves won 1-0 way to Southampton.
Newcastle news and injuries
Newcastle will likely be unchanged from the side that drew 1-1 with Watford last time out.
Betting information and prediction
- Wolves have drawn their last 4 matches against Newcastle in all competitions.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Wolves’s last 6 games (Premier League).
- Wolves have lost their last 4 home matches (Premier League).
- Wolves have been drawing at both half time and full time in their last 3 home matches against Newcastle in all competitions.
- Wolves have failed to score in their last 3 home matches (Premier League).
- Wolves have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 home matches against Newcastle in all competitions.
- Newcastle are undefeated in their last 7 away matches against Wolves in all competitions.
- Newcastle have failed to win their last 6 matches (Premier League).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Wolves is -0.259 and for the Newcastle is -0.459.
- The home dynamic for the Wolves is -0.961 and the dynamic as a guest for the Newcastle is -0.616.
- The offensive ability for the Wolves is -0.762 and for the Newcastle is 0.579.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Wolves is -0.142 and for the Newcastle is -1.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.79 goals and Newcastle to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Wolves to win by 1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.23 goals and Newcastle to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|