Wolves Vs Newcastle

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wolves and Newcastle for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.68 4.1 5.15 1.89 1.97
Estim 2.8 3.75 2.67 2.04 1.96
Value % -23.81 2.28 18.04 -3.89 0.26



Basic Data and latest results


Wolves basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 2 4 0 6
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 0 3
At Home 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 3




Wolves latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Southampton A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Brentford H 0 2 L U Ng
11 Sep Watford A 2 0 W U Ng
29 Aug Man United H 0 1 L U Ng
22 Aug Tottenham H 0 1 L U Ng
14 Aug Leicester A 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Newcastle basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 5 6 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Away 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2




Newcastle latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Watford A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Sep Leeds H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Man United A 1 4 L O Gg
28 Aug Southampton H 2 2 D O Gg
21 Aug Aston Villa A 0 2 L U Ng
15 Aug West Ham H 2 4 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Wolves (3-4-3) Newcastle (4-5-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Jos? S? GK Karl Darlow GK
Romain Sa?ss DC Matt Ritchie DL
Conor Coady DC Ciaran Clark DC
Maximilian Kilman DC Federico Fern?ndez DC
Mar?al DML Javier Manquillo DR
Jo?o Moutinho MC Joelinton ML
R?ben Neves MC Sean Longstaff MC
N?lson Semedo DMR Isaac Hayden MC
Trinc?o FWL Joseph Willock MC
Ra?l Jim?nez FW Miguel Almir?n MR
Adama Traor? FWR Allan Saint-Maximin FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Wolves news and injuries



It would be a surprise if at least one of those didn’t come into the side here. Wolves still have five players on the treatment table this weekend. . Adama Traore, Trincao and Ruben Neves were surprisingly benched last time out but Wolves won 1-0 way to Southampton.


Injured player Status
Jonny Out
Pedro Neto Out
Hugo Bueno Out
Yerson Mosquera Out
Rayan A?t-Nouri Out



Newcastle news and injuries


Newcastle will likely be unchanged from the side that drew 1-1 with Watford last time out.
.


Injured player Status
Jonjo Shelvey Out
Callum Wilson Out
Paul Dummett Out
Jamaal Lascelles Out
Martin D?bravka Out
Freddie Woodman Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Wolves have drawn their last 4 matches against Newcastle in all competitions.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Wolves’s last 6 games (Premier League).
  • Wolves have lost their last 4 home matches (Premier League).
  • Wolves have been drawing at both half time and full time in their last 3 home matches against Newcastle in all competitions.
  • Wolves have failed to score in their last 3 home matches (Premier League).
  • Wolves have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 home matches against Newcastle in all competitions.
  • Newcastle are undefeated in their last 7 away matches against Wolves in all competitions.
  • Newcastle have failed to win their last 6 matches (Premier League).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wolves is -0.259 and for the Newcastle is -0.459.
  • The home dynamic for the Wolves is -0.961 and the dynamic as a guest for the Newcastle is -0.616.
  • The offensive ability for the Wolves is -0.762 and for the Newcastle is 0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wolves is -0.142 and for the Newcastle is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wolves 28% 32% 28% 12%
Newcastle 28% 34% 22% 17%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.79 goals and Newcastle to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Wolves to win by 1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.23 goals and Newcastle to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.8
1 5.43 2-3 2.04
2 4.05 4+ 4.1
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.54 Un 1.5 3.8
5 13.89 Ov 2.5 2.05
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.96
Gg 1.94 Ov 3.5 4.1
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.99 3.33 2.74
2-3 goals 2.41 4.58 2.72
4+ goals 3.75 3.05 2.46
Ov 1.5 2.74 3.93 2.63
Un 1.5 2.99 3.33 2.74
Ov 2.5 2.55 6.09 2.25
Un 2.5 3.09 2.74 3.21
Ov 3.5 3.75 3.05 2.46
Un 3.5 2.59 4.05 2.73
Goal-Goal 3.24 2.75 3.05
No Goal 2.45 6.1 2.34
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.57 5.1 2.41
NG+Un 2.5 2.44 6.1 2.53



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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