Wycombe Vs Morecambe

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wycombe and Morecambe for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.68 3.83 4.88 1.86 1.95
Estim 2.12 3.72 3.85 2.18 1.85
Value % -12.35 0.77 5.48 -7.89 2.77



Basic Data and latest results


Wycombe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1




Wycombe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Shrewsbury A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Milton Keynes Dons A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Charlton H 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Oxford A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Sunderland A 1 3 L O Gg
21 Aug Lincoln H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Wigan A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Cheltenham A 3 1 W O Gg



Morecambe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 2 33 3 4 3 1




Morecambe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Lincoln H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Accrington H 3 3 D O Gg
21 Sep Crewe A 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Doncaster A 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep AFC Wimbledon H 3 4 L O Gg
28 Aug Sheffield Weds H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Gillingham A 1 2 L O Gg
17 Aug Rotherham H 0 1 L U Ng






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Wycombe (3-5-2) Morecambe (4-3-3)
Player Pos Player Pos
David Stockdale GK Kyle Letheren GK
Joe Jacobson DC Liam Gibson DL
Ryan Tafazolli DC Scott Wootton DC
Anthony Stewart DC Anthony O’Connor DC
Jason McCarthy DML Ryan McLaughlin DR
Curtis Thompson MC Adam Phillips MC
Sullay Kaikai MC Toumani Diagouraga MC
Josh Scowen MC Alfie McCalmont MC
Jack Grimmer DMR Arthur Gnahoua FWL
Brandon Hanlan FW Cole Stockton FW
Sam Vokes FW Wes McDonald FWR




Basic Data

Predictions

Wycombe news and injuries


Wycombe have no fresh injury worries and should therefore be unchanged from winning at Shrewsbury in midweek.
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Injured player Status



Morecambe news and injuries


Shane McLoughlin is in the middle of a three-match ban, which means Morecambe could be unchanged from their victory over Lincoln on Tuesday.
.


Injured player Status
Jonathan Obika Out
Shane McLoughlin Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Wycombe have been winning at both half time and full time in their last 3 home matches (League One).
  • Wycombe have won their last 3 home matches (League One).
  • Wycombe have won with a 1 goal margin in their last 3 home matches (League One).
  • Morecambe have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches (League One).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wycombe is 0.17 and for the Morecambe is 0.2.
  • The home dynamic for the Wycombe is 0.922 and the dynamic as a guest for the Morecambe is -0.224.
  • The offensive ability for the Wycombe is 0.036 and for the Morecambe is 0.547.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wycombe is -0.313 and for the Morecambe is -0.227.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wycombe 20% 37% 25% 17%
Morecambe 36% 35% 19% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.77 goals and Morecambe to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Wycombe to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.39 goals and Morecambe to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Wycombe to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.51 0-1 3.57
1 4.85 2-3 1.99
2 3.85 4+ 4.63
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.99 Un 1.5 3.57
5 17.54 Ov 2.5 2.18
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 1.97 Ov 3.5 4.63
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.09 3.78 3.89
2-3 goals 2.08 3.83 3.86
4+ goals 2.27 3.38 3.79
Ov 1.5 2.14 3.68 3.84
Un 1.5 2.09 3.78 3.89
Ov 2.5 1.86 7.16 3.09
Un 2.5 2.41 2.63 4.86
Ov 3.5 2.27 3.38 3.79
Un 3.5 2.09 3.81 3.87
Goal-Goal 2.77 2.6 3.93
No Goal 1.71 6.64 3.78
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 5.88 2.91
NG+Un 2.5 1.83 6.64 3.68



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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