Zwolle Vs Heerenveen

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Zwolle and Heerenveen for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.8 3.31 2.45 1.98 1.88
Estim 3.3 3.79 2.31 1.5 2.99
Value % -5.41 -3.83 2.47 16.16 -19.75



Basic Data and latest results


Zwolle basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 2 6 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 0 1 2 11 1 3 0 3




Zwolle latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Utrecht A 1 5 L O Gg
22 Sep Sparta Rotterdam H 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Go Ahead Eagles A 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Ajax H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Willem II A 0 1 L U Ng
20 Aug Nijmegen A 0 2 L U Ng
15 Aug Vitesse H 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Heerenveen basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 6 5 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2




Heerenveen latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Twente H 2 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Feyenoord A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep For Sittard H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Groningen A 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug AZ Alkmaar H 1 3 L O Gg
21 Aug Waalwijk H 3 2 W O Gg
13 Aug Go Ahead Eagles A 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Zwolle (4-2-3-1) Heerenveen (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Kostas Lamprou GK Erwin Mulder GK
Yuta Nakayama DL Lucas Woudenberg DL
Siemen Voet DC Sven van Beek DC
Bram van Polen DC Ibrahim Dresevic DC
Mark Pabai DR Milan van Ewijk DR
Thomas van den Belt DMC Joey Veerman DMC
Rico Strieder DMC Nicolas Madsen DMC
Gervane Kastaneer AML Siem de Jong AML
Dean Huiberts AMC Tibor Halilovic AMC
Daishawn Redan AMR Anthony Musaba AMR
Slobodan Tedic FW Henk Veerman FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Zwolle news and injuries


PEC Zwolle are still missing Sai van Wermeskerken, Mees de Wit and Pelle Clement this weekend.
.


Injured player Status
Sai van Wermeskerken Out
Pelle Clement Out
Mees de Wit Out



Heerenveen news and injuries


Pawel Bochniewicz and Rami Kaib sit this game out with respective injuries.
. Xavier Mous, Arjen van der Heide, Filip Stevanovic and Benjamin Nygren are all pushing for starts.


Injured player Status
Rodney Kongolo Out
Pawel Bochniewicz Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in PEC Zwolle’s last 6 home games (Eredivisie).
  • PEC Zwolle have lost 6 of their last 7 matches (Eredivisie).
  • PEC Zwolle have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches against SC Heerenveen in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Zwolle is -0.815 and for the Heerenveen is -0.222.
  • The home dynamic for the Zwolle is -0.624 and the dynamic as a guest for the Heerenveen is -0.056.
  • The offensive ability for the Zwolle is -0.731 and for the Heerenveen is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Zwolle is -1 and for the Heerenveen is -0.597.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Zwolle 22% 33% 20% 24%
Heerenveen 11% 36% 23% 30%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.18 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.47 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.72 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 40 0-1 7.04
1 8.55 2-3 2.29
2 5.15 4+ 2.37
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.16
4 4.27 Un 1.5 7.04
5 8.62 Ov 2.5 1.5
6+ 13.89 Un 2.5 2.98
Gg 1.44 Ov 3.5 2.37
NoG 3.25 Un 3.5 1.73


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.84 5.68 1.77
2-3 goals 3.52 3.61 2.28
4+ goals 2.95 3.58 2.62
Ov 1.5 3.22 3.59 2.43
Un 1.5 3.84 5.68 1.77
Ov 2.5 2.73 5.64 2.19
Un 2.5 5.6 2.3 2.58
Ov 3.5 2.95 3.58 2.62
Un 3.5 3.6 3.97 2.13
Goal-Goal 3.19 2.9 2.92
No Goal 3.54 12.32 1.57
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.64 4.85 2.41
NG+Un 2.5 3.58 12.32 1.65



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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