Altrincham Vs Grimsby

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Altrincham and Grimsby for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.03 3.4 2.32 1.89 1.95
Estim 2.14 3.89 3.62 1.98 2.02
Value % 13.73 -3.7 -15.48 -2.41 -1.78



Basic Data and latest results


Altrincham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 4 5 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1




Altrincham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Dag and Red A 3 2 W O Gg
28 Sep King’s Lynn H 4 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Notts County H 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Wealdstone A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Dover Athletic H 3 2 W O Gg
30 Aug Halifax A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Torquay A 3 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Grimsby basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 2 1 42 3 3 2 2




Grimsby latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Dover Athletic H 6 0 W O Ng
28 Sep Bromley A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Maidenhead A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Eastleigh H 2 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Wrexham H 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Torquay A 3 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Barnet H 4 3 W O Gg
31 Aug Stockport A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Altrincham is 0.799 and for the Grimsby is 1.
  • The home dynamic for the Altrincham is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Grimsby is 0.294.
  • The offensive ability for the Altrincham is 0.144 and for the Grimsby is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Altrincham is -0.373 and for the Grimsby is 0.94.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Altrincham 24% 28% 25% 22%
Grimsby 33% 36% 21% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.16 goals and Grimsby to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.45 goals and Grimsby to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Altrincham to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.83
1 5.52 2-3 2.07
2 4.26 4+ 3.89
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.17 Un 1.5 3.83
5 13.89 Ov 2.5 1.98
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.02
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 3.89
NoG 2.03 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.81 3.26 2.97
2-3 goals 1.95 4.74 3.63
4+ goals 2.02 3.43 4.67
Ov 1.5 1.97 4.18 3.94
Un 1.5 2.81 3.26 2.97
Ov 2.5 1.73 6.73 3.66
Un 2.5 2.82 2.73 3.59
Ov 3.5 2.02 3.43 4.67
Un 3.5 2.18 4.09 3.37
Goal-Goal 2.32 2.88 4.5
No Goal 1.98 6.15 3.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.86 5.43 3.6
NG+Un 2.5 2.24 6.15 2.86



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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