Boreham Wood Vs Torquay

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Boreham Wood and Torquay for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.24 3.51 3.08 1.9 1.94
Estim 2.2 3.88 3.48 2 2
Value % 0.81 -2.72 -3.73 -2.63 -1.55



Basic Data and latest results


Boreham Wood basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Home 2 2 0 67 3 2 2 2




Boreham Wood latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Eastleigh A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Yeovil H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Solihull A 1 3 L O Gg
14 Sep Halifax H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Bromley A 3 2 W O Gg
04 Sep Stockport H 0 0 D U Ng
30 Aug Dover Athletic A 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Aldershot H 1 0 W U Ng



Torquay basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 6 4 5 1
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 2 1
At Away 1 2 1 42 4 4 3 1




Torquay latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Wealdstone H 5 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Chesterfield A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Southend H 1 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Solihull A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Grimsby H 1 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Maidenhead A 4 3 W O Gg
30 Aug Woking H 0 4 L O Ng
28 Aug Notts County A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Boreham Wood is 0.408 and for the Torquay is 0.593.
  • The home dynamic for the Boreham Wood is 0.124 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torquay is -0.094.
  • The offensive ability for the Boreham Wood is 0.604 and for the Torquay is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Boreham Wood is -0.507 and for the Torquay is 1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Boreham Wood 25% 28% 25% 22%
Torquay 32% 36% 21% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.43 goals and Torquay to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.43 goals and Torquay to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.2 0-1 3.8
1 5.52 2-3 2.07
2 4.26 4+ 3.91
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.21 Un 1.5 3.8
5 13.89 Ov 2.5 1.99
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.01
Gg 1.97 Ov 3.5 3.91
NoG 2.02 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.92 3.21 2.89
2-3 goals 1.99 4.77 3.47
4+ goals 2.08 3.37 4.49
Ov 1.5 2.02 4.17 3.77
Un 1.5 2.92 3.21 2.89
Ov 2.5 1.77 6.62 3.52
Un 2.5 2.91 2.72 3.46
Ov 3.5 2.08 3.37 4.49
Un 3.5 2.24 4.07 3.24
Goal-Goal 2.37 2.86 4.37
No Goal 2.05 6.02 2.89
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.9 5.34 3.5
NG+Un 2.5 2.32 6.02 2.76



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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