Halifax Vs Notts County

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Halifax and Notts County for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.15 3.4 2.16 1.87 1.93
Estim 2.06 3.95 3.82 1.98 2.02
Value % 16.8 -4.1 -20.12 -2.97 -2.31



Basic Data and latest results


Halifax basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 3 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 0 1 2
At Home 3 0 1 75 4 2 3 1




Halifax latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Barnet A 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Aldershot A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Stockport H 3 0 W O Ng
14 Sep Boreham Wood A 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Southend H 3 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Yeovil A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Aug Altrincham H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Woking A 3 2 W O Gg



Notts County basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 1 42 3 3 1 3




Notts County latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Woking H 1 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Altrincham A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Maidenhead H 1 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Wealdstone H 3 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Weymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Aldershot H 3 2 W O Gg
30 Aug Wrexham A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Torquay H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Halifax is 0.74 and for the Notts County is 0.419.
  • The home dynamic for the Halifax is 0.19 and the dynamic as a guest for the Notts County is 0.271.
  • The offensive ability for the Halifax is 0.037 and for the Notts County is 0.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Halifax is 1 and for the Notts County is -0.06.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Halifax 24% 27% 26% 24%
Notts County 34% 36% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.11 goals and Notts County to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Notts County to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.49 goals and Notts County to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.2 0-1 3.85
1 5.62 2-3 2.07
2 4.29 4+ 3.92
3 4 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.17 Un 1.5 3.85
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 1.98
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 2.03
Gg 2 Ov 3.5 3.92
NoG 2 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.89 3.17 2.95
2-3 goals 1.84 4.98 3.9
4+ goals 1.92 3.49 5.2
Ov 1.5 1.87 4.34 4.27
Un 1.5 2.89 3.17 2.95
Ov 2.5 1.64 6.92 4.04
Un 2.5 2.77 2.75 3.62
Ov 3.5 1.92 3.49 5.2
Un 3.5 2.11 4.15 3.5
Goal-Goal 2.2 2.94 4.89
No Goal 1.93 6.09 3.14
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.77 5.51 3.94
NG+Un 2.5 2.22 6.09 2.91



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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