King’s Lynn Vs Barnet

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between King’s Lynn and Barnet for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.95 3.67 3.55 1.69 2.12
Estim 2.82 3.66 2.68 2.03 1.97
Value % -15.82 0.07 9.14 -9.91 3.59



Basic Data and latest results


King’s Lynn basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 4 6 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Home 0 0 4 0 1 4 1 3




King’s Lynn latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Maidenhead A 3 2 W O Gg
28 Sep Altrincham A 1 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Wealdstone H 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Dag and Red H 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Eastleigh A 3 3 D O Gg
30 Aug Chesterfield H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Yeovil A 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Southend H 0 1 L U Ng



Barnet basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Away 0 1 3 8 3 4 2 2




Barnet latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Halifax H 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Weymouth H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Bromley A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Sep Chesterfield A 2 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Eastleigh H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Grimsby A 3 4 L O Gg
30 Aug Dag and Red H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Solihull A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the King’s Lynn is -0.586 and for the Barnet is -0.163.
  • The home dynamic for the King’s Lynn is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnet is -0.788.
  • The offensive ability for the King’s Lynn is 0.112 and for the Barnet is -1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -1 and for the Barnet is 0.06.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
King’s Lynn 26% 38% 22% 14%
Barnet 26% 34% 24% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.69 goals and Barnet to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team King’s Lynn to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.25 goals and Barnet to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.49 0-1 3.89
1 5.32 2-3 2.03
2 4.02 4+ 4.02
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.29 Un 1.5 3.89
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 2.03
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.84 Ov 3.5 4.02
NoG 2.2 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.6 3.72 2.89
2-3 goals 2.85 3.85 2.57
4+ goals 3.04 3.28 2.74
Ov 1.5 2.91 3.64 2.62
Un 1.5 2.6 3.72 2.89
Ov 2.5 2.52 6.49 2.23
Un 2.5 3.2 2.57 3.35
Ov 3.5 3.04 3.28 2.74
Un 3.5 2.76 3.81 2.67
Goal-Goal 3.42 2.67 3.01
No Goal 2.33 6.59 2.38
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.62 5.47 2.3
NG+Un 2.5 2.39 6.59 2.5



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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