Southend Vs Eastleigh

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Southend and Eastleigh for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.78 3.29 2.47 2.04 1.78
Estim 2.18 3.86 3.53 1.99 2.01
Value % 9.9 -4.49 -12.16 1.23 -6.43



Basic Data and latest results


Southend basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 5 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 1 2
At Home 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1




Southend latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Solihull A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Torquay A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Aldershot H 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Halifax A 1 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Wrexham H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug Wealdstone A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Stockport H 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug King’s Lynn A 1 0 W U Ng



Eastleigh basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2




Eastleigh latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Boreham Wood H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Woking H 3 2 W O Gg
18 Sep Grimsby A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Sep Dover Athletic H 4 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Barnet A 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep King’s Lynn H 3 3 D O Gg
30 Aug Bromley A 0 3 L O Ng
28 Aug Wrexham H 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Southend is -1 and for the Eastleigh is 0.547.
  • The home dynamic for the Southend is -0.905 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eastleigh is -1.
  • The offensive ability for the Southend is -0.497 and for the Eastleigh is 0.06.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Southend is -0.507 and for the Eastleigh is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Southend 24% 29% 25% 22%
Eastleigh 32% 36% 21% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southend to score 1.15 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southend to score 1.44 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Southend to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.83
1 5.49 2-3 2.06
2 4.22 4+ 3.89
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.17 Un 1.5 3.83
5 13.89 Ov 2.5 1.98
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.01
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 3.89
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.78 3.3 2.97
2-3 goals 2 4.62 3.51
4+ goals 2.09 3.38 4.43
Ov 1.5 2.03 4.1 3.79
Un 1.5 2.78 3.3 2.97
Ov 2.5 1.78 6.64 3.48
Un 2.5 2.85 2.71 3.58
Ov 3.5 2.09 3.38 4.43
Un 3.5 2.22 4.05 3.3
Goal-Goal 2.4 2.84 4.32
No Goal 2 6.19 2.96
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.91 5.38 3.44
NG+Un 2.5 2.25 6.19 2.83



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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