Wealdstone Vs Solihull

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Solihull for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.99 3.59 1.89 2.03 1.82
Estim 2.31 3.79 3.3 2 2
Value % 18.23 -1.47 -22.61 0.74 -4.95



Basic Data and latest results


Wealdstone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Home 1 2 1 42 3 2 2 2




Wealdstone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Torquay A 0 5 L O Ng
25 Sep King’s Lynn A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Aldershot H 2 2 D O Gg
14 Sep Notts County A 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Altrincham H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Dag and Red A 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug Southend H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Chesterfield A 0 2 L U Ng



Solihull basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Away 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1




Solihull latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Southend H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Dag and Red A 1 5 L O Gg
21 Sep Dover Athletic A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Boreham Wood H 3 1 W O Gg
14 Sep Torquay H 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Aldershot A 2 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Weymouth H 3 4 L O Gg
28 Aug Barnet H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wealdstone is 0.112 and for the Solihull is 1.
  • The home dynamic for the Wealdstone is -0.095 and the dynamic as a guest for the Solihull is -0.141.
  • The offensive ability for the Wealdstone is 0.433 and for the Solihull is 0.06.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wealdstone is 0.2 and for the Solihull is 1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wealdstone 24% 32% 24% 19%
Solihull 31% 36% 22% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 0.9 goals and Solihull to score 1.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the guest team Solihull to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.39 goals and Solihull to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.89
1 5.43 2-3 2.05
2 4.13 4+ 3.92
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.21 Un 1.5 3.89
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.9 Ov 3.5 3.92
NoG 2.12 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.6 3.52 3.02
2-3 goals 2.19 4.23 3.25
4+ goals 2.3 3.31 3.81
Ov 1.5 2.23 3.86 3.42
Un 1.5 2.6 3.52 3.02
Ov 2.5 1.94 6.49 3.03
Un 2.5 2.87 2.65 3.64
Ov 3.5 2.3 3.31 3.81
Un 3.5 2.32 3.96 3.17
Goal-Goal 2.66 2.74 3.85
No Goal 2.02 6.47 2.86
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.08 5.35 3.01
NG+Un 2.5 2.21 6.47 2.8



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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